Saturday, April 11, 2015

2015 NIGERIA DECIDES: Governorship Elections: Projections On How States Will Vote

THE NATION / GRAPHITTI NEWS SPECIAL REPORT

It was always on the cards that whichever side prevailed in the March 28 presidential election would benefit from the inevitable bandwagon effect. But not even the most cynical observer of Nigerian politics could have predicted the exodus from the ranks of the PDP in virtually all zones of the country.

The impact of General Muhammadu Buhari, candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and now President-Elect is bound to be telling in states where the result of the presidential contest was close. Although he’s not on the ballot in the gubernatorial races playing out across the country this weekend, his influence looms large over the whole affair.

Expectedly, APC and its candidates would benefit from association with his name in the North West, North East and North Central. In the South West and South South, many are increasingly considering whether they want to belong to the opposition in the new dispensation.

In the 19 Northern states the APC – still basking from its landslide victory across the zone two weeks ago – will slug it out with an embattled Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) which is struggling to rally its dispirited troops. Other parties in contention in some states are the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM).

Whether North or South the following factors are likely to determine how the contests turn out: strong party affiliation; slew of defections; the bandwagon effect of the victory of Buhari; ethno-religious configuration; the personality of the candidates; zoning / power shift syndrome and probable voters’ apathy.

SOUTHWEST

With the presidential election settled, the gubernatorial contests in three South West states would be determined by totally local issues and personalities. However the Buhari factor could come into play as the people of the region as excited at the prospect of being in the same boat as the party that controls the center. This could have a bearing on Saturday’s polls. Governorship elections would hold in only Lagos, Ogun and Oyo States. In Ondo, Ekiti and Osun only state assembly polls will hold.

LAGOS

Before the March 28 polls, most analysts would have listed Lagos as one of the safest states for the APC. Aware of the opposition’s strength in the state and the strategic importance of its more than five million registered voters, President Goodluck Jonathan made tremendous efforts at swaying the electorate in Lagos in favour of his party.

The assault on the opposition stronghold involved the deployment of huge sums in foreign currency as well as overtly pitting non-indigenes against their hosts. These efforts clearly had an impact given that by the time the dust settled, only 160, 133 votes separated Buhari and Jonathan.

The result was a surprise as in 2011 Governor Babatunde Fashola who was the candidate of the then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) trounced his PDP opponent by 1,509,113 to 300, 450 votes.

While many have blamed the March 28 figures on everything from complacency, to voter apathy and even Jonathan’s last minute efforts to capture the state using financial inducement and appeals to ethnicity, the outcome clearly jolted APC into action.

One of the surprises of the polls was the fact that PDP won in some erstwhile APC strongholds like Oshodi-Isolo, Ajeromi Ifelodun, Amuwo-Odofin and Surulere. Clearly, the PDP’s strategy of targeting Igbos and South South indigenes resonated very well as their zones backed Jonathan’s re-election bid wholeheartedly.

In other to neutralize that factor, the APC campaign machinery has gone into overdrive trying to woo Igbo voters. But all their efforts were thrown out of joint following an encounter between the Oba of Lagos, Rilwan Akiolu and the leaders of some Igbo groups at the weekend. The angry traditional ruler was recorded virtually threatening them with dire consequences if they didn’t vote for Akinwunmi Ambode, the APC gubernatorial candidate.

Key leaders like the President-elect Muhammadu Buhari, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, Fashola and Ambode have tried to douse the ensuing firestorm of controversy by pointing out  that the APC will not discriminate in Lagos.

Predictably, the PDP still reeling from Jonathan’s loss has sought to capitalize on the row to enhance the chances of its candidate, Jimi Agbaje. But it remains to be seen how the episode would help him.

Indeed, analysts are of the view that the March 28 result shook APC out of its complacency and it is now pulling out all stops to rally its base. That isn’t good news for its opponents.

Some have also pointed out that by trying to set the Igbos against indigenes, PDP had not played smart politics because the move was a double-edged sword that could turn locals against it.

There is also the fact than the non-indigene card is more complex that it looks on the surface. Lagos is a melting pot for people from different parts of the country. Just as a substantial number of Igbos live in the city, there are also a great number of settlers from the North who equally have their political preferences.

One observer pointed out that beyond the social media noise and the blazing newspaper headlines, the Igbos are very pragmatic in their political behavior outside their home territory. In the end they would decide which side best favours their business and other interests – leaving the possibility of the PDP and APC sharing their votes.

Saturday’s election is also being heavily affected by the argument that for the first time in 16 years Lagos would be in the same political camp as the government at the center. This factor is a powerful incentive that could tip the contest in APC’s favour. Before Jonathan’s loss this was a pitch state PDP leaders loved to toss around. Now the other side has stolen their thunder.

Also, months after his controversial victory at the primary election, Jimi Agbaje is still battling serious issues within his party. And with these critical matters still unresolved, pundits say his aspiration to rule Lagos may remain a mere wishful thinking.

Issues like reconciling several factions of the party and how to convince Lagosians that he is not a stooge of some discredited politicians in the PDP.

APC’s control of political structures in Lagos is massive – from state to local council levels. This gives it an unparalleled ability to get out the votes on polling day This week the huge civil service was being mobilized to back Ambode who until a few years ago was one of their own.

Against this backdrop, the APC candidate, is well placed to coast home with a comfortable victory today.

But unlike in 2011, when it was a clean sweep for the ruling party, the PDP could win some assembly seats, especially in areas where it won seats into the House of Representatives.

Verdict: APC to win.

OGUN

Before the March 28 presidential election, an array of PDP chieftains, including Buruji Kashamu, former party boss, Joju Fadairo, Adewale Osinubi, Doyin Okupe, amongst others, were working round the clock to deliver votes in the state to the PDP. They were determined to beat APC to second place. They campaigned against the wide acceptance of Governor Ibikunle Amosun. It was a huge task for Jonathan’s men and at the end of the presidential polls, they learnt their lessons. PDP lost the presidency and could only win a senate seat and two House seats.

Consequently, observers say the support base of the party in Ogun State is daily being depleted ahead of the governorship election, giving an impression that Gboyega Isiaka, the PDP governorship candidate may soon be alone and fighting a lost battle.

While rumours are rife that Buruji is already negotiating with the leadership of the APC for a soft landing following Jonathan’s loss, Okupe and Fadairo are said to be less concerned with what becomes of Gboyega’s aspiration as their interest in the entire process had all along been hinged on the presidency.

More shockingly, Osinubi, who is the candidate of the PDP for the House of Representatives for Ijebu Central Federal Constituency, on Thursday defected to APC, and vowed to support Amosun’s re-election.

This is just as the PDP is worrying its head over the seeming ‘siddon look’ attitude of people like former Governor Gbenga Daniel, former Speaker Dimeji Bankole, Jubril Martins-Kuye and a host of other aggrieved leaders amidst fears that they may work against its victory tomorrow.

Analysts are also of the opinion that winning the 2015 governorship election in the state for PDP may be a tall order. This is because majority of the people of the state across political party lines believe Amosun has performed well in his first term.

Verdict: APC to win.

OYO

In Oyo state, the failure of Jonathan’s party to make any appreciable impact at the March 28 election confirmed earlier permutations that Governor Abiola Ajimobi would win another term in Government House. With the poor performance of the PDP and Rasheed Ladoja’s Accord Party, the Adebayo Alao-Akala-led Labour Party (LP), is left to challenge the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Saturday’s election.

While the APC clinched all senate seats and majority House of Representatives slots, the LP won two House of Representatives seats. This signals the decline of both the PDP and the Accord Party in the politics of the state. The development reinforced the readiness of the APC to continue in office beyond 2015.

Incumbent governor, Senator Ajimobi, who is seeking a  second term in office, is up against old familiar foes in the battle for the political soul of the Pacesetter State.

Lined up against him are his predecessor, Adebayo Alao-Akala of the Labour Party (LP); another former governor, Rashidi Ladoja representing Accord Party (AP); former Senate Leader, Teslim Folarin, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) a youthful politician and wealthy businessman, Seyi Makinde, the flag bearer of the relatively new Social Democratic Party (SDP).

The non-stop defection of party leaders from the PDP which started with the exit of former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala, continued after Jonathan’s loss – dealing a massive psychological blow to the party.

A few days ago a member of the House of Representatives, two former members on the platform of Accord and PDP), a governorship aspirant, one women leader, former local government chairmen and thousands of their supporters joined APC. The defectors are Hon. Afeez Jimoh, Folake Olunloyo-Osinowo, Tayo Sarumi, Dr. Azeez Adeduntan, Mrs Ayoka Lawani and former Chairman, Iseyin Local Government, Mr Waheed Adeleke, among others.

With APC determined to hold on to the state, enjoying the support of all the first class monarchs including Alaafin of Oyo, Soun of Ogbomosho, Olubadan of Ibadan etc, as well as its recent victories across the state in the National Assembly elections, Ajimobi may have little or no problem pushing over Akala on his way back to Government House.

Interestingly, the four leading candidates – Ajimobi, Ladoja, Folarin and Makinde are from Ibadan, the state capital. While Ajimobi hails from Ibadan South, Ladoja comes from Ibadan North, with Folarin and Makinde both from Ona Ara. Akala is an indigene of Ogbomoso.

Against this backdrop, earlier permutations were that the votes from Ibadan will  be shared among Ajimobi, Ladoja, Folarin and Makinde, with none of the contenders having a clear cut advantage. Not a few are also ruling Akala out in the scramble for Ibadan votes. The former governor was optimistic of posting a good showing, banking on the fact that his running mate, Sharafa Alli, a former Secretary to the State Government (SSG), hails from Ibadan.

But the massive support given to the APC on March 28 by the people of Ibadan, with the party clinching all available positions, has rubbished such calculations. If last election results are anything to go by, Ajimobi will mop up the votes in his native Ibadan and enjoy support from all other parts of the state.

Verdict: APC wins.

SOUTH SOUTH

As projected by this newspaper, President Jonathan won the March 28 polls comfortably in the South South zone. He is not on the ballot as the states choose their governors tomorrow. His loss could dampen the enthusiasm of his party men. The prospect of life in opposition could also affect the way some states vote. But in the final analysis local issues of power shift and balancing could prove decisive.

CROSS RIVER

Going by the results posted by the PDP in the presidential race, its governorship candidate, Senator Ben Ayade, should be awaiting mere coronation tomorrow.

Voters massively chose PDP above other parties at the presidential election. It scored 414,863 to APC’s 28,368. Such a wide margin makes any upset unlikely for the APC or any other party. The incumbency factor is also in favour in Ayade. His party has always won the state and has seemingly impenetrable structure in all the nooks and crannies.

But politics is never as simple as ABC. Things are not always what they seem. An innocuous incident can upturn everything in politics, turning a dominant party into the opposition in no time. While Ayade remains the clear favourite to grab the votes owing by the victory of his party in all local governments of the state at the presidential poll, the emergence of Buhari as President-elect could sway votes in the direction of APC.

Its governorship candidate, Odey Ochicha, is no push-over. The former employee of the National Petroleum Investment Management Services (NPIMS) has deep pockets and wide network. He is considered approachable and accessible but critics say he lacks political experience and has never won any election.

There is talk that voters could look his way so as not to be in the opposition with APC in power at federal level but that remains to be seen. Except the unthinkable happens, Ayade might be on his way to winning the election.

Verdict: PDP to win

AKWA IBOM

As far as many members of the APC in Akwa-Ibom are concerned, the 953,304 votes scored by President Jonathan in the state were just concocted. They claimed there were no elections in Akwa-Ibom. Some who accepted elections held alleged the exercise was marred by irregularities and manipulations.

The APC has accused the police and state INEC of colluding with Governor Godswill Akpabio to rig the presidential election in favour of the PDP.

The 58,411 votes for Buhari, they said, were just allocated to the president-elect. Realistically speaking, no one expected Buhari to win Akwa-Ibom going by the traditional voting pattern and mood of the state. But the massive margin enjoyed by Jonathan convinced people there was more to the poll than meets the eyes.

Tomorrow, APC’s governorship candidate, Umana Umana, will be out to prove the large margin in Akwa Ibom by PDP was a fluke. He is from Uyo district with the largest voting population in the state.  He is also popular in the Oron Nation comprising five local government areas in Akwa Ibom South. As a former Secretary to the State Government (SSG), he has a wide network that could be handy.

His candidature is boosted by the support of former Governor Victor Attah and former Petroleum Minister, Don Etiebet, to the APC. The duo has scores to settle with Governor Akpabio and prove their relevance in local politics. With them, Umana is a stronger candidate.

But he is up against formidable forces in the PDP led by Akpabio who is bent on installing Udom Emmanuel as his successor. Akpabio is a major financier of national PDP so shouldn’t have challenges spending to enable his anointed candidate win.

The popular belief is that the contest could go either way if the INEC and security agents play by the rule.  APC leaders insist that if the polls are free and fair, the lopsided figures of March 28 will be overturned. The party’s candidate would be hoping the population strength of his Oron people will tip the balance in his favour tomorrow.

Verdict: Battleground

RIVERS

Saturday’s governorship election promises to be an epic battle between Dakuku Peterside of APC and PDP’s Nyesom Wike. It would be a battle of egos, money, the political future of the dramatis personae and much more.

For state governor, Rotimi Amaechi, who is rounding up his second term in office, this is one election that would define his place in the political history of the South-South state.

And for his opponents nothing would be spared to reclaim the state from a man who, in the last two years, has proved a real handful.

Riding high on the back of his endorsement by the First Lady, Patience Jonathan, the PDP candidate is telling everyone that he is a man to watch out for.

But of greater concern to PDP leaders is the opposition to Wike’s candidacy from influential opinion leaders in the state including former minister, Chief Alabo Graham Douglas and Ijaw activist, Annkio Briggs to mention just a few.

Their grouse is connected with the failure of the PDP to respect the unwritten zoning agreement dating back to1998 regarding the governorship seat. It provides for rotation between the Upland and the Riverine areas of the state.

Wike hails from Ikwerre in the upland, the same ethnic nationality as the incumbent governor, whose predecessor, Dr. Peter Odili, who governed from 1999 to 2007 was also from the upland.

The agitation for power shifts Peterside. From the Opobo kingdom, the youthful politician was elected to represent Andoni/Opobo-Nkoro area in the House of Representatives in 2011.

Peterside’s emergence, sources say, was a deft move by his political mentor, Amaechi to rally the support of the riverine people behind the APC in the battle for the political soul of the state.

With the riverine people are expected to queue behind Peterside in the election, political observers are of the opinion that the support by the Ikwerre and Ogoni nationalities for or against the two major candidates would go a long way to determine who wins the election.

In the last few days the Ijaw National Council has come out to endorse Peterside as well as have the a council of Rivers State Elders led by fomer Director-General of the State Security Service (SSS), Albert Horsfall.

A few posers would suffice here: can Amaechi convince his kinsmen to reject another Ikwerre (Wike) in favour of Peterside? Would aggrieved PDP governorship aspirants and key stakeholders like Graham Douglas, Dokubo, Briggs and others work against Wike who is the anointed candidate of the Presidency?

In the Ogoni axis, Peterside, sources say, is head and shoulders above Wike in the battle for votes. His high rating is linked to the influence of the Senator representing Rivers East, Magnus Abe, who despite losing his return bid on March 28, remains a loyal member of APC.

With the victory of President Jonathan on March 28 in the state still a subject of controversy, Rivers APC is reportedly girding its loins in order to prevent a re-occurrence in the governorship election.

Against this backdrop, the party is not leaving anything to chance in its preparations for the coming polls. The victory of the APC in the presidential election, sources say, has galvanized members of the party to deliver the governorship seat for the party tomorrow.

This is, however, not the case in the PDP camp. The defeat of Jonathan, sources say has greatly dampened the initial enthusiasm in the party.

In the last one week, a palpable gloom has gripped the rank and file of the party who fear that the people of the state could pitch their tent with APC in the governorship election in line with the political history of the state which usually prefers to be in the country’s political mainstream.

The pattern of voting in the governorship election, sources posit, would significantly reflect in the state House of Assembly which would hold on the same day.

Like Akwa Ibom, if the INEC and security agents are neutral, APC may win by a slight margin.

Verdict: APC to win

DELTA

Still riding high on the crest of its victory in the presidential election, the Delta State chapter of the PDP is confident of recording a similar feat in the governorship election.

 Its candidate, Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, who started his political career as a councilor, appears to be the odds on favourite in the election in which his major opponent, Olorogun O’tega Emerhor, cannot be considered as a push-over.

A few factors are working in Okowa’s favour. First, is his deep understanding of the political environment owing to his almost two decades in politics.

 A former councilor, ex-local government chairman, former commissioner and ex-Secretary to the State Government (SSG) and currently a senator, Okowa also enjoys the support of many political stakeholders in the state on account of the zoning formula, which favours the Delta North where he hails from.

 The intimidating structures of the PDP due to its 16 years of dominating the political landscape of the state since 1999 would also come in handy for Okowa, who currently chairs the Senate Committee on Health.

 For the APC candidate, Olorogun Emerhor, an Urhobo, an ethnic group which unarguably controls the largest population in Delta Central, all hope is not lost despite the poor showing of his party at the presidential election.

 The businessman turned politician, sources say, is banking on the population of the Urhobos to clinch the governorship seat.

But his aspiration is not helped by APC’s lack of structures in the state coupled with his political inexperience. Though many Deltans believe that Emerhor has what is required to take the state to the next level if elected governor, the division within the leadership of his ethnic group, many of whom are allegedly pro-PDP may work against him at the polls.

Despite the heavy odds stacked against the APC candidate, party members remain upbeat on Emerhor’s chances. Their optimism, it was learnt, stems from the party’s victory in the presidential polls and the likely bandwagon effect this would have on the governorship elections.

Another candidate capable of making any impact an on the polls is Chief Great Ogboru of the Labour Party. An Urhobo, Ogboru gave the incumbent governor a run for his money in the 2007 and 2011, and this fact is not lost on political watchers of the state who argue that the LP candidate has the heart of a lion and popularity to pull off an upset tomorrow.

However, the heavy depletion of his resources expended on prosecuting his 2003 and 2007 governorship campaigns may hamper his chances of realizing his age-long ambition come tomorrow.

In the event that Okowa and Emerhor wins the majority votes in their respective senatorial zones, the battleground would be in the South senatorial zone where the incumbent governor, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, an Itsekiri comes from.

 Sources say when the chips are down, the PDP candidate would win this zone barring any last minute upset. In the Ijaw speaking area, Okowa appears the candidate to beat, as influential opinion leaders in the area including Ijaw leader, Chief Edwin Clark and ex-militant, Government Ekpemupolo popularly called Tompolo, are backing him to the hilt.

 In the worst case scenario, the Itsekiri votes would likely be split among the two major candidates thus putting Emerhor at a disadvantage. But interestingly, a few days ago noted Itsekiri billionaire, an ally of Governor Uduaghan and PDP financier, Chief Ayiri Emami, defected to APC. How this will affect the race is hard to tell.

 And for the House of Assembly election, the PDP may win majority of the seats leaving a handful of others for the APC and LP.

Verdict: PDP to win

SOUTH EAST

In spite of historical patterns the results of the March 28 presidential and National Assembly elections in the South-East were controversial and intriguing. While informed observers had correctly predicted President Jonathan’s victory in the zone, only very few, if any, imagined the possibility of the ruling party also claiming all the National Assembly seats from the zone.

This situation, coupled with the victory of APC’s Buhari, at the presidential poll, has raised the stakes in Saturday’s governorship and state house of assembly elections in the zone. Before the current realities, PDP supporters in the South-East used to joke that once you secure the party’s ticket at the primaries; you were already on the way to the office you were contesting for. The permutations may have changed largely following the victory of Buhari’s APC at the federal level and the usual craze in the zone to be part of mainstream politics. Intriguingly, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, the pan-Igbo socio-cultural organization, has directed voters in Imo and Abia states to vote for APC in the governorship and House of Assembly elections. In a statement issued after a meeting in Enugu, the Caretaker Committee of the body, led by Chief Ralph Obioha, stated that voting for APC in the election had become necessary in order to integrate Igbo into the party and the emerging political equation. It remains to be seen what electoral value this eleventh hour endorsement carries.

ABIA

In Abia State where Governor Theodore Orji effectively controls the PDP party machinery, the party is very hopeful of another landslide both in the governorship and State House of Assembly elections.

Describing Orji’s control of the party machinery in an interview with The Nation, Chief Udensi Ukoma, a community leader in Abia North, said, “ Over the years, PDP has managed to dictate the pace in Abia State politics because of Governor Orji’s style of governance. Until recently, he succeeded in rendering opposition parties redundant in Abia.”

That state of inertia however changed tremendously during the preparations for this year’s governorship primaries as most opposition political parties fielded what a political commentator in Umuahia described as “equally strong governorship candidates, whose dynamism brought life to the opposition parties once despised in Umuahia Government House.

For example, the emergence of Dr. Alex Otti, the immediate past Managing Director of Diamond Bank, as the governorship candidate of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) rejuvenated the party in the state, making it one of the major contenders.

For the APC candidate, Dr. Nyerere Anyim, who is from Agburuike Isiugwu in Obingwa LGA, the result of the March 28 presidential election, in which APC candidate emerged the President-elect, is a great boost to his quest to occupy the coveted seat at Umuahia Government House. Many believe that this turn of events in the country’s federal political equation will help to make APC in the state a major contender.

Another factor that helps the three parties and their candidates is zoning. They all come from the zone widely favoured to produce the next governor of the state. While his critics tried hard to dismiss Otti’s Ngwa heritage, it seems difficult to say he has no connections with the Ngwa race.

 So, these current realities have thrown up the three political parties; the ruling PDP, which has Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu as its governorship candidate, APGA and APC as the major contenders in next week’s governorship election.

While Ikpeazu’s PDP, boasting of the incumbency factor in the state and the fact that the party cleared the presidential and National Assembly elections in the state, is confident to emerge the winner, Nyerere and Otti’s supporters believe the emergence of Buhari, as the president-elect, has neutralized the political temperature in the state, creating a more level playing field. As a result, the two candidates are equally hopeful.

It would be interesting also watching what impact the defection of former Abia State Governor Uzor Orji Kalu’s biological and political family to APC has on Saturday’s contest.

Verdict: PDP to win

EBONYI

Although Ebonyi is a traditional PDP state, we predicted that it would be a battleground in this year’s presidential election mainly because of the ripple effects of the crisis in PDP, which culminated in the political coup that dislodged control of the party from Governor Martin Elechi.

 As it stands, supporters of the embattled governor, who moved over to Labour Party from where they have arguably taken the shine off the PDP at governorship campaigns, are major contenders to the Ebonyi governorship race. The party’s governorship candidate, Chief Edward Nkwegu, enjoys Elechi’s support and this is widely believed to be an advantage. He equally has the support of former Minister of Health, Prof. Onyebuchi Chukwu, who lost the PDP ticket to the Deputy Governor, Dave Umahi, in very controversial circumstances.

 Umahi, who is the governorship candidate of the ruling PDP has, since his dramatic emergence, fought a brave battle with supporters of Elechi. While his supporters say he has done enough to be reckoned with as a major contender, others believe he and his party, PDP, will be major casualties of the result of the presidential election and the emergence of APC’s Buhari as the president-elect. This is because Umahi’s strength had been traced to his long connection to Abuja and Aso-Rock. But with the imminent change of baton, it is doubtful if the Deputy Governor and the state PDP will still get the kind of backing many anticipated they would receive in order to win the governorship race.

Some say even if his patrons like Senator Anyim Pius Anyim and Jonathan who had enthroned federal lawmakers in the state still throw their weight behind him, ordinary voters may want to take into cognizance of the reality that APC will now be in charge at the centre.

Already, there are stories that the supporters of Elechi in Labour may find an alliance with APC very attractive. If this happens, they may easily win the governorship election, if not, it will be a three horse race.

 All these will however depend on how APC succeeds in handling the crisis that trailed the selection of its governorship candidate. It would be recalled that in late February, some aggrieved stakeholders of the party in Ebonyi threatened to leave if Senator Julius Ucha remained the governorship flag-bearer. They reportedly said if they remained in the party, they would work against Ucha.

Verdict: PDP to win.

ENUGU

Since the dramatic reconciliation of the Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu-led faction of PDP in Enugu State and that of Governor Sullivan Chime, the party’s governorship candidate, Hon. Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, has remained the top contender in Saturday’s gubernatorial election.

But the dynamic campaign of the Okey Ezea-led APC in the state, is posing a threat to Ugwuanyi’s predicted victory because of the emergence of Buhari as President-Elect. The Nation gathered that many grassroots political leaders in the state, who never gave a second thought to APC are now willing to work for the party. This will serve as a major boost for the party. Dr. Kingsley Udeh in Enugu said “even if APC failed to win the governorship race in the state, it will get some state House of Assembly seats and that will be a good beginning.”

 Again, although the Chime/Ekweremadu rift has been resolved, insiders say many people were hurt in the process and such people may work against PDP.

 Also, with Enugu State’s Catholic dominated population, there is the fear in PDP that Father Ejike Mbaka’s well publicized sermon may still sway precious votes to APC. This notwithstanding, Ugwuanyi, who enjoys Chime’s full support, remains the clear frontrunner in the race.

Verdict: PDP to win

IMO

The presidential and National Assembly election results notwithstanding, Imo State is an APC state, with Governor Rochas Okorocha flying the flag of his party for the governorship race.

Before his dramatic emergence, first on the ticket of All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) before the formation of APC, the state had remained a traditional PDP state.

 That explained the large number of experienced politicians that are still in the PDP and the stiff political challenge Okorocha’s APC still faces in the state. The way the governor and others criticised the results of the presidential and National Assembly election, underscores clear the competition in the state. In the result announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), PDP besides winning the presidential race cleared the National Assembly seats.

To Okorocha, the polls were rigged. The state however gave Buhari over 25 per cent of the votes.

 With the emergence of APC’s Buhari as the President-elect, observers say the state elections in Imo will be different. According Ikechukwu Anyanwu, “We know we have long association with PDP and there are many influential politicians in the party, there is no doubt that APC, the ruling party, will do better in next week’s elections.”

 The governorship is a three-horse race between the APC, fielding Governor Rochas Okorocha; PDP, fielding Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Emeka Ihedioha and APGA, fielding Captain Emmanuel Iheanacho. While the three parties enjoy sizeable followership in the state, the incumbent governor is likely to win the race. Few days ago, notable PDP member Ifeanyi Araurume directed his supporters to vote for Okorocha.The party will also get majority in the House of Assembly but both PDP and APGA will also get seats in the Assembly.

Verdict: APC to win

NORTH-EAST

The critical factor in the North-East is the insurgency and how the Jonathan administration has handled it. That clearly weighed heavily in the minds of voters as they punished the president and his party at the polls last weekend. That pattern is expected to be repeated this Saturday. However, massive defections to APC, ethnic and religious factors could also affect outcomes in Adamawa and Taraba.

ADAMAWA

The race in Adamwa has been turned on its head by a massive wave of defections this week from the ranks of the PDP. A former Deputy Senate Majority Leader, Jonathan Zwingina, a former Minister of External Affairs, Idi Hong, and two serving senators crossed to APC. Others who abandoned the ruling party are Senators Bello Tukur and Ahmed Barata, as well as Sadiq Haske, a chieftain of the party.

The gubernatorial contest was initially billed as a tough fight among four strong candidates in the state. They are the APC’s Senator Jibrilla Bindow; the SDP candidate, Marcus Gundiri, who narrowly lost to ex-Governor Murtala Nyako in 2011;  the PDP candidate, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu (a former chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the candidate of the PDM, Dr. Ahmed Mohammed Modibbo.

With the backing of the Christian community, especially in Adamawa North, Gundiri is set to give APC candidate, Bindow a good fight. The APC in the state is also projecting a united front with ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar now backing Bindow.

On March 28 APC secured 374, 701 votes during the presidential election against PDP’s 251, 664. But with the ruling party experiencing a massive uprising within its ranks against Ribadu candidacy, the margin of its defeat could be wider tomorrow as momentum is clearly on the side of APC.

Verdict: APC to win

TARABA

The Taraba gubernatorial contest is one to watch. The state may be about to make history by electing the first female governor in Nigeria. APC’s Senator Aisha Jummai Alhassan, a stupendously wealthy lawyer is presently locked in a race with ex-Minister of Niger Delta Affairs, Darius Dickson Ishaku of the PDP which could go either way.

The outcome of the presidential election suggests a tight governorship poll on Saturday because while PDP scored

310, 800 votes, APC was able to get 261, 326. This trend left a difference of only 49, 474 votes between the parties.

Of greater significance tomorrow would be how the three senatorial districts vote. Historically, the North and Central districts (Muri Emirate) tend to band together, while Taraba South which is made up of parts of the state that came from old Gongola and Benue-Plateau tends to go in a different direction. Alhassan is from Taraba North while Ishaku is from Taraba South.

The challenge for PDP is the division amongst its members in the South senatorial district. Some who allege that Ishaku was imposed as the party’s candidate would have preferred David Sabo-Kente – a former accountant at the National Assembly, Abuja.

Sabo-Kente is reputed to a grassroots mobiliser while his critics see Ishaku as more of a Kaduna man. Rather than lying low after losing the PDP ticket, he went on to pick the gubernatorial ticket of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and has vowed to stay in the race. The upshot is that these two rivals would split the votes in their stronghold – leaving Alhassan to sweep the Muri Emirate clean.

Although former Minister of Defence, Gen. Theophilus Danjuma is influential in the state’s politics, observers are of the view that this pull is limited to the South senatorial district.

Another factor that is coming into play is the Buhari bandwagon effect. Already there are claims that following the loss of Jonathan, many local PDP leaders who no longer feel beholden to the lame-duck president are double-dealing behind the scenes by working for Alhassan.

Some have said the APC candidate’s gender could work against her. But the counter argument is that Muri Emirate solidarity is a stronger factor that would neutralize any misgivings about electing a woman as governor. Further stoking the rivalry are the claims that Taraba South controls the civil service and should not be handed the governorship as well. All of this sets up the race nicely for Alhassan – former wife of one-time Vice Chancellor of Ahmadu Bello University (ABU), Prof. Ango Abdullahi.

Verdict: Too close to call

BAUCHI

The earning of a paltry 86, 085 votes by the PDP in Bauchi State during the presidential election compared to APC’s 931, 598 votes has left other parties with a little hope in the governorship poll. Unless a miracle happens, the battle is over because the bandwagon effect of the poll success of the President-elect would be to the advantage of the APC governorship candidate, Muhammed Abdullahi Abubakar. If it is true that Governor Isa Yuguda installed both the APC and PDP candidates, it must be a deft political move which may see him winning wherever the pendulum swings.

The other nine candidates include Danladi Musa (MPPP); Mukhtar

Haladu (AD); Bello Ibrahim (APGA); Salisu Musa (UPN); Mato Musa (UPP); Bala Musa (PDC); Abdullahi Adamu Usman (KOWA); Jatau Mohammad Auwal (PDP); and Musa Yakubu Wanka (ACPN).

Verdict: APC to win comfortably

GOMBE

Despite placing Sen. Danjuma Goje under house arrest, APC still  won the presidential election with 361, 245 to PDP’s 96, 873 votes.  The tension in the state accounted for the low turnout of voters. Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo of PDP is in dire straits because of the formidable forces arrayed against him.

He has an acceptable opponent in Mohammed Inuwa Yahaya of the APC, but the decisive factor would be the Buhari phenomenon. Early in the week, 50 of his aides and notable PDP chieftains defected to the APC. The rest of the field are Hassan Kidda (LP); Muhammed Ibrahim (AD); Ahmed Modibo Wali (APGA); Abdulhamid  Sadiq (UDP); Yusuf Haruna (NNPP); Jafar Abubakar(ADC); Umar Ardo (PDC); Abubakar Hashidu (Accord); Gidado Hashidu (ACPN) and Muhammad Yelwa Daudu (SDP).

Verdict: APC victory.

BORNO

The declaration of Gambo Lawan as the PDP governorship candidate in Borno State by the Federal High Court, Abuja has thrown the party into disarray. The decision saw a former Governor of Borno State, Sen. Modu Ali Sheriff losing out in his bid to install his godson as governor of the state. The development has forced many PDP members to stand aloof and watch how Lawan will weather the storm.

Thus, Lawan is going into the governorship election as a political orphan. With APC’s huge votes of 473, 543 in Borno State during the presidential election and PDP’s paltry 25,640 votes, the outcome of the governorship poll is predictable.

Verdict: APC victory

YOBE

The APC is already in celebratory mood here following its overwhelming victory at the presidential election where it earned 446, 265 votes and left PDP with 25, 526. Governor Ibrahim Gaidam(APC) is leading other contestants like ex-Minister Adamu Maina Waziri (who is becoming a veteran governorship candidate); Buka Abba Isa (AD); Muhammad Musa Lawal (APGA); Alli Gunsama Jallaba (NCP). The fact that the APC family had been united is strength for the party. On the other hand, the PDP has been battling divisions within its ranks since it concluded its governorship primaries.

Verdict: APC to win

NORTH WEST

The PDP controls the state governments in Kebbi, Jigawa, Katsina and Kaduna. This notwithstanding, the sentiments across the zone is largely pro-Buhari. Many candidates are expected to ride to victory on the president-elect’s coattails.

KEBBI

Seventeen candidates want to be governor in Kebbi State but the odds favour the APC’s Sen. Atiku Bagudu. His closest rival is Gen. Sarkin Yaki Bello of the PDP. Although APC earned 567,883 votes to PDP’s 100,972 at the presidential poll, its leaders are working round the clock to seal victory on April 11. One of the party’s leaders said: “We are not taking things for granted at all; we want to make it a finished business.”

The imposition of the PDP candidate by outgoing Governor Saidu

Dakingari triggered the defection of many party stalwarts to APC. They include ex-FCT Minister, Adamu Aliero, Sen. Muhammadu

Magoro, Bala Na’Allah, Suleiman Mohammed Argungu and the APC governorship candidate.

It was not surprising that APC had a clean sweep last Saturday. Barring last minute game-changer, the internal wrangling in PDP has laid the foundation for APC’s victory.

Verdict: APC to win

KATSINA

This is the home state of Buhari. His image looms large over it and the bandwagon might dictate the outcome of the governorship election. The gubernatorial candidate of PDP, Musa Nashuni needs to do something extraordinary to match the hurricane support  of the APC candidate, ex-Speaker Aminu Masari.

Verdict: APC to win comfortably.

 KANO

This is safe political terrain for APC where it polled a massive 1,903,999 votes against PDP’s 215, 779 last Saturday. The landslide victory of has sent jitters down the spine of PDP members who appear resigned to fate. The contest would be mainly between APC’s Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and Salihu Muhammad Sagir of the PDP.

Verdict: APC to win comfortably

KADUNA

Having lost the presidency last Saturday, the only hope left for Vice President Namadi Sambo is to win the governorship slot for PDP in Kaduna State. His political godson and incumbent governor, Mukhtar Ramalan Yero faces a Herculean electoral contest against the candidate of the APC, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, the former Minister of FCT.

For APC to have garnered 1,127,760 votes at the presidential poll against PDP’s 484,085, Sambo does not need a soothsayer to tell him that his party’s prospects for this weekend are bleak.

Although APC is working against complacency, other strong things in its favour are the Buhari factor; the poor performance of Yero and the desire for change; the choice of Barnabas Bala Bantex, who is loved in Southern Kaduna, as deputy governorship candidate; and the defection of many stalwarts of PDP to APC.

Verdict: APC to win.

ZAMFARA

This is an APC stronghold. In the presidential election, the party floored PDP with 612, 202 to 144, 833 votes. Nothing substantial may change during the governorship poll because the masses are still behind ex-Governor Sani Yerima and his political godson, Abdulaziz Yari. Since 1999, PDP has not won the governorship election in Zamfara State. There are 19 other candidates trying their luck against Yari – among them ex-Governor Mahmud Aliyu Shinkafi of PDP.

Verdict: APC victory.

JIGAWA

During his visit to the Presidential Villa on Friday, Governor Sule Lamido was quick to acknowledge that the PDP was rejected at the polls on March 28 by Nigerians. He was also forthright in setting the template for the governorship election when he said: “There is a tendency for bandwagon effect but it is up to us to work very hard.”

The battle in Jigawa is between the APC candidate, Mohammed Badaru Abubakar and PDP’s Mallam Aminu Ibrahim Ringim.

Others are Sardauna Yaro (APGA) and Murtala Musa Galamawa (NCP). The race is a litmus test for the political survival of Lamido who has developed Jigawa in an unprecedented manner in the last eight years.

But the governor’s position was further undermined this week by the defection of his deputy as well as former Governor Saminu Turaki and others. Added to this, the Buhari bandwagon effect might just prove too much for him.

Verdict: APC to win

SOKOTO

The governorship contest is also a family affair in Sokoto where the leading candidate, Speaker Aminu Waziri Tambuwal (APC) is pitched against his political mentor, Sen. Abdalla Wali of the PDP. When Wali was elected a Senator in 1999, it was his lot to search for a competent legislative aide and he found one in the young Tambuwal. The rest is now history.  Having been inspired by his time working in the Senate, he took a plunge into politics and rose to the peak as the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

The APC, ably coordinated by Governor Aliyu Wammako, remains the party to beat in Sokoto. The party’s vote haul of 671, 926 at the poll on March 28 was a signal that the PDP might not go far at the governorship level. Its lingering internal squabbles occasioned by the shortchanging of Deputy Governor Mukhtar Shagari may make the defeat of the outgoing ruling party a fait accompli.

Verdict: APC to win comfortably

NORTH CENTRAL

With the exception of Kwara and Nasarawa, PDP controls the state governments in the zones four other states – Niger, Benue, Plateau and Kogi. What used to be a PDP stronghold has been devastated by Hurricane Buhari. However, the results this weekend may still be determined by a complex mix of ethnic and religious politics that is never far from the surface in this zone.

BENUE 

Watching Governor Gabriel Suswam of Benue State on the television on last Friday revealed the amount of pressure he’s been under since he was humbled by Senator Barnabas Gemade at last Saturday’s senatorial contest.

With the PDP losing two out of the three senatorial seats in the state, the governorship election could be slipping from its grasp. At the time of writing this report, the momentum was clearly on the side of APC with several PDP heavyweights like former Minister of Justice and Attorney-General, Michael Aondoakaa and others defecting to APC. The loss of these big names could prove psychologically devastating for the demoralized PDP.

The top candidates are ex-Minister Samuel Ortom (APC) backed by Sen. George Akume, former PDP national chairman, Sen.Barnabas Gemade; ex-Minister Audu Ogbeh among others. Suswam’s anointed candidate is Prince Terhemen Tarzor.

Verdict: APC to win.

PLATEAU

For the first time since 1999, the fortunes of PDP in Plateau State dipped last Saturday pointing to the significance of the crack in its fold. At the presidential ballot, the party secured 549, 615 votes to defeat APC which garnered 429, 140 votes. The demand for power shift and other issues like the imposition of PDP candidate, Sen. Gyang Pwajok might make the governorship poll tougher. The people of Southern and Central Plateau have rejected the imposition Pwajok from Plateau North on them after the eight-year tenure of Governor David Jang.

Out of the 17 local governments in the state, Plateau North has six, South (six) and Central is left with five. Motivated by the urge for power shift, the people of Southern and Central Plateau have opted for APC leaving only Plateau North in PDP. The APC governorship candidate, Hon. Simon Lalong is from Southern Plateau and his deputy is the immediate past

Vice Chancellor of the University of Jos, Prof. Sonny Tyodem from Plateau Central. On its part, the PDP picked its candidate from Plateau North and deputy, U.G. Gomwalk from Kanke in Plateau Central.

The outgoing Governor Jang is locked in the fight of his life because a Pwajok loss will overshadow his political legacy. But he will have to engage in that survival battle without key leaders like former Governor Dariye and General Jeremiah Useni who just defected to APC days after being elected senators on PDP’s platform.

The days preceding Saturday’s polls have also witnessed the announcement of an alliance between APC, Labour Party (LP) and Mega Party in the state. Jang who has dismissed the merger is hoping to take advantage of the high population strength of Plateau North, the church and Berom ethnic nationality to upstage the APC candidate.

Verdict: Battleground

 KWARA

There are 16 governorship candidates in Kwara. The crowd notwithstanding, the real contest is between incumbent Governor Abdulfatai Ahmed (APC) and Sen. Simeon Sule Ajibola of PDP.

A coronation is likely in the state going by the mood of voters at last Saturday’s presidential election where they voted massively for APC with 302,146 votes compared to PDP’s 32,602.

The problems with PDP in the state are wrong choice of candidate; restriction of the political influence of its candidate, Ajibola to only Kwara South Senatorial District; the recourse to religious and ethnic politics by Ajibola; abandonment by other PDP governorship aspirants except Prof Shuaib Oba Abdulraheem (the DG of Ajibola Campaign Organization) as well as the sudden loss of support from the centre and PDP financier in the state, Hajiya Bola Shagaya.

On its part, APC has gained more supporters with its ability to keep the state united; the strong platform of the late Wazirin of Ilorin,

Dr. Abubakar Olusola Saraki; the political support from Sen. Gbemisola Saraki; the religious factor; and the bandwagon effect of Buhari’s victory.

Verdict: The state is 70-30 in favour of APC.

KOGI

There is no governorship poll in Kogi State but the struggle for control of the State House of Assembly will be between APC, PDP and Accord Party. Last Saturday, APC won all the three Senatorial seats in the state across 21 local government areas. While Accord is stronger in Yagba West, APC and PDP will slug it out in 20 others.

Verdict: APC to win majority in the assembly

NASARAWA

The results of the presidential election in Nasarawa State have shown that the governorship poll is an even fight between the APC candidate, Governor Umar Tanko Al-Makura and PDP’s Yusuf Mohammed Igabi. Last Saturday, PDP garnered 273, 460 while APC secured 236,838 votes. But a huge number of votes that could have gone either way were voided.

The indices which will shape the race are ethnicity; religion; godfathers; coalition of forces and performance in office.

The other candidates in the governorship race are Hajiya A. Mbaka (LP); Labaran Maku (APGA); Tanko Malami (PPA); Zakka Zaggi Rabo (ADC); Stanley John Mamud (Accord) and Haruna Shuaibu Iliyasu (ID).

Findings reveal that if there is an alliance between Maku, who is from the influential Eggon ethnic group and another candidate, the governor may walk on tight rope. The selling points of Al-Makura are his humility, sterling performance in office, ability to resolve the incessant crises between the natives and Fulani herdsmen; and earning the confidence of the peasant.

Verdict: Battleground

NIGER

The humiliating defeat of Governor Babangida Aliyu in the Niger East Senatorial District election on March 28 foretold what may happen in the governorship election in the state. Apart from Babangida, most PDP leaders are yet to recover from what one of them described as the “Buhari Tsunami.”

The battle in Niger State is purely that of former Army generals and officers whose children are contesting. The APC candidate, Abubakar Sani Bello is the son of a former Army chief and a key stakeholder in MTN, Col. Sani Bello (retd). The PDP candidate, Umar Mohammed Nasko is a scion of Gen. Gado Nasko’s family. Investigation also confirmed that the APC candidate is married to the daughter of a former Head of State, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar.

At last Saturday’s election APC received 657, 678 votes to PDP’s 149, 222. The gap may prove too big to bridge before this weekend’s contest.

Verdict: APC to win.

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