The Ebola outbreak in
West Africa eventually could exceed 20,000 cases, more than six times as many
as are now known, the World Health Organization said Thursday.
A new plan by the U.N.
health agency to stop Ebola also assumes that the actual number of cases in
many hard-hit areas may be two to four times higher than currently reported. If
that's accurate, it suggests there could be up to 12,000 cases already, AP reports.
"This far outstrips
any historic Ebola outbreak in numbers. The largest outbreak in the past was
about 400 cases," Dr. Bruce Aylward, WHO's assistant director-general for
emergency operations, told reporters.
"What we are seeing
today, in contrast to previous Ebola outbreaks: multiple hotspots within these
countries — not a single, remote forested area, the kind of environments that
have been tackled in the past. And then not multiple hotspots within one
country, but international disease."
Another new dimension, he
said, is the difficulty of dealing with Ebola in large cities and broad areas.
The agency published new
figures saying that 1,552 people have died from the killer virus from among the
3,069 cases reported so far in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Nigeria. At
least 40 percent of the cases have been identified in the last three weeks, the
U.N. health agency said, adding that "the outbreak continues to
accelerate."
In Geneva, the agency
released a new plan for handling that aims to stop Ebola transmission in
affected countries within six to nine months and prevent it from spreading
internationally.
The plan calls for $489
million to be spent over the next nine months and requires 750 international
workers and 12,000 national workers.
The goal is to take
"the heat out of this outbreak" within three months, he said. That
will enable WHO to start using classic containment strategies to stop
transmission altogether.
The next goal, Aylward
said, is to be able to stop transmission within eight weeks of a new case being
confirmed anywhere. "That is extremely aggressive but that can be done. It
has been done in remote forested areas; it has not been done in urban
areas."
The third major goal is
to increase the preparedness for dealing with Ebola in all nations that share
borders with affected countries or have major transportation hubs, he said.
The 20,000 cases figure,
said Aylward, "is a scale that I think has not ever been anticipated in
terms of an Ebola outbreak."
"That's not saying
we expect 20,000," he added. "But we have got to have a system in
place that we can deal with robust numbers."
Air France on Wednesday
canceled its flights to Sierra Leone, but Aylward said the agency is urging
airlines to lift most of their restrictions about flying to Ebola-hit nations.
"This is absolutely
vital," he said. "Right now there is a super risk of the response
effort being choked off, being restricted, because we simply cannot get enough
seats on enough airplanes to get people in and out, and rotating, to get goods
and supplies in and out and rotating, so this is a big part of what has got to
be sorted."
Nigerian authorities,
meanwhile, said a man who contracted Ebola after coming into contact with a
traveler from Liberia had evaded surveillance and infected a doctor in southern
Nigeria who later died.
The announcement of a
sixth death in Nigeria marked the first fatality outside the commercial capital
of Lagos, where a Liberian-American man, Patrick Sawyer, arrived in late July
and later died of Ebola. On Wednesday, Nigerian authorities said they have not
yet eliminated the disease from Africa's most populous nation but that it was
being contained.
The doctor's wife is in
isolation after she started showing symptoms of Ebola, Nigerian Health Minister
Onyebuchi Chukwu added. Morticians who embalmed the doctor are part of a group
of 70 people now under surveillance in Port Harcourt.
The World Food Program
says it is preparing to feed 1.3 million people in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra
Leone in the coming months because measures to control an Ebola outbreak have
cut off whole communities from markets, pushed up food prices and separated
farmers from their fields. Denise Brown, the West Africa regional director for
the U.N. agency, said $70 million is needed immediately to meet those needs.
She said the
unprecedented challenge of distributing food in an Ebola zone means that the
agency is taking longer to reach full capacity.
On Thursday, the U.S.
National Institutes of Health announced it will start testing an experimental
Ebola vaccine in humans next week. The vaccine was developed by the U.S.
government and GlaxoSmithKline and the preliminary trial will test the shot in
healthy U.S. adults in Maryland. At the same time, British experts will test the
same vaccine in healthy people in the U.K., Gambia and Mali.
The vaccine trial was
accelerated in response to the outbreak. Preliminary results to determine if
the vaccine is safe could be available within months.
"There is an urgent
need for a protective Ebola vaccine, and it is important to establish that a
vaccine is safe and spurs the immune system to react in a way necessary to
protect against infection," said NIAID Director Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, in a
statement.
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