The world's largest
humanitarian crisis in 70 years has been declared in three African countries on
the brink of famine, just as President Donald Trump's proposed foreign aid cuts
threaten to pull the United States from its historic role as the world's top
emergency donor.
If
the deep cuts are approved by Congress and the U.S. does not contribute to
Africa's current crisis, experts warn that the continent's growing drought and
famine could have far-ranging effects, including a new wave of migrants heading
to Europe and possibly more support for Islamic extremist groups.
The
conflict-fueled hunger crises in Nigeria, Somalia and South Sudan have
culminated in a trio of potential famines hitting almost simultaneously. Nearly
16 million people in the three countries are at risk of dying within months.
Famine
already has been declared in two counties of South Sudan and 1 million people
there are on the brink of dying from a lack of food, U.N. officials have said.
Somalia has declared a state of emergency over drought and 2.9 million of its
people face a food crisis that could become a famine, according to the U.N. And
in northeastern Nigeria, severe malnutrition is widespread in areas affected by
violence from Boko Haram extremists.
"We
are facing the largest humanitarian crisis since the creation of the United
Nations," Stephen O'Brien, the U.N. humanitarian chief, told the U.N.
Security Council after a visit this month to Somalia and South Sudan.
At
least US$4.4 billion is needed by the end of March to avert a hunger
"catastrophe" in Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen, U.N.
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in late February.
But
according to U.N. data, only 10 percent of the necessary funds have been
received so far.
Trump's
proposed budget would "absolutely" cut programmes that help some of the
most vulnerable people on Earth, Mick Mulvaney, the president's budget
director, told reporters last week. The budget would "spend less money on
people overseas and more money on people back home," he said.
The
United States traditionally has been the largest donor to the U.N. and gives
more foreign aid to Africa than any other continent. In 2016 it gave more than US$2 billion to the U.N.'s World Food Program, or almost a quarter of its total
budget. That is expected to be reduced under Trump's proposed budget, according
to former and current U.S. government officials.
"I've
never seen this kind of threat to what otherwise has been a bipartisan
consensus that food aid and humanitarian assistance programmes are morally
essential and critical to our security," Steven Feldstein, a former deputy
assistant secretary of state in the Obama administration, told The Associated
Press.
Any
cuts at this time are extremely significant, WFP's Africa spokesman, David Orr,
told reporters last week. "The more dramatic cuts in any aid budgets ...
the more suffering there is going to be."
The
hunger crises in Nigeria, Somalia and South Sudan are all the more painful
because they are man-made, experts said, though climate change has had some
impact on Somalia and Nigeria's situations, said J. Peter Pham, the head of the
Africa Centre at the Atlantic Council.
South
Sudan has been entrenched in civil war since late 2013 that has killed tens of
thousands and prevented widespread cultivation of food. In Nigeria and Somalia,
extremist groups Boko Haram and al-Shabab have proven stubborn to defeat, and
both Islamic organizations still hold territory that complicates aid efforts.
If
Trump's foreign aid cuts are approved, the humanitarian funding burden for the
crises would shift to other large donors like Britain. But the U.S.'s
influential role in rallying global support will slip.
"Without
significant contributions from the U.S. government, it is less able to catalyze
contributions from other donors and meet even minimal life-saving needs,"
Nancy Lindborg, president of the United States Institute of Peace, said in
prepared remarks to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday.
Meanwhile,
neighboring African countries will feel the immediate consequences of famine,
experts said. On Thursday, the U.N. refugee chief said Uganda was at a
"breaking point" after more than 570,000 South Sudanese refugees had
arrived since July alone.
Others
fleeing hunger could aim for Europe instead.
"We
are going to see pressure on neighboring countries, in some cases people joining
traditional migration routes both from the Sahel into Europe, or south into
various destinations in Africa," Joseph Siegle, director of research at
the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, told the AP.
"You
have 19 countries facing some degree of food stress in Africa, and three of
them are facing famine conditions. All three of them are facing conflict, and
the vast majority of the countries facing more serious crises are
non-democratic governments," Siegle said.
He
described a series of possible consequences. Most likely there will be
increased flows of people migrating from Somalia and the vast Sahel region
north into Libya, where trafficking routes are a valuable source of finance for
the Islamic State, he said.
Closer
to home, people from South Sudan and Somalia seeking food likely will strain
the resources of neighboring countries where political will and goodwill to
refugees can be fleeting, said Mohammed Abdiker, director of operations and
emergencies with the International Organization for Migration.
The
regional consequences will depend on how the international community responds,
Abdiker said.
Alex De Waal, executive
director of the World Peace Foundation, summed up the situation: "Famine
can be prevented if we want."
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