The recently released Economic
Recovery & Growth Plan 2017-2020, (ERGP), was heralded by knocks from
experts.
Daily
Trust report continues:
The
plan released by the Ministry of Budget and National Planning indicated that by
2020, Nigeria would have made significant progress towards achieving structural
economic change and having a more diversified and inclusive economy if the
provisions of the plan are implemented.
The
Federal Government is targeting to create 15 million jobs, achieve 7% inflation
rate and a robust growth in the nation’s Gross Domestic Product, (GDP), by 2020
as part of its economic recovery plan spanning from 2017.
As
part of the measure geared towards rescuing the nation’s foreign exchange
crisis, the plan recommended that the naira should be allowed to float, a
recommendation the Central Bank of Nigeria, (CBN), rejected. The rejection was
an indication of a rough start for the plan and also a pointer to the
possibility that more agencies saddled with implementing the prescriptions of
the proposal may only implement what they like and not what the plan says.
The
plan was borne out of the need to rescue the economy from the current recession
and set it on the part of growth.
For
instance, a recent report of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed
that the country’s Gross Domestic Product, (GDP), contracted by -1.51%,
indicating real data of ₦67.98 trillion for the year.
In
a rare situation, Nigeria witnessed stagflation as seen in slowing GDP and high
rate of inflation, a development that rattled both the fiscal and monetary
authorities in the country.
Prices
of consumable goods, electronics, vehicles and mostly imported goods increased
as forex scarcity persisted.
For
instance, the NBS reported that the average prices of rice and garri
skyrocketed by over 70% between February 2016 and February 2017.
The
selected food price watch data released by the NBS showed that the average
prices of beans, beef, tinned milk, frozen chicken, onion, tomato and yam also
recorded unprecedented leaps in the last one year, being an indication of the
ailing economy.
NBS
reported that as at February 2017, inflation rate hit 17.78%, a slight drop
from the 18.72%recorded in January of the year.
This
was the first time the inflation rate would have a marginal drop in the last 15
months since the rate exited single digit.
The
NBS reported that the average price of imported high quality rice increased by
68.1 per cent in one year, from ₦279.61 to ₦410.58 per mudu as at last month
while the average price of white garri, which is most often locally produced,
saw a rise in one year to be sold at ₦260.94 per mudu in February 2017 from ₦241.71
sold in February 2016.
It
is worth noting that it is not only inflation and the GDP that needed urgent
rescue operation by the recovery plan, but the trade sector as well. For
instance, the country recorded a trade balance of ₦290.13 billion out of the
total trade value of ₦17.34 trillion recorded in 2016.
To
better appreciate the economic hardship being faced by Nigerians, it is
important to note that as inflation rate rose, unemployment rate also kept
rising.
The
NBS reported that the country’s unemployment rate rose from 13.3 per cent in
the second quarter to 13.9 per cent in the third quarter of 2016.
The
Foreign Trade Statistics for the last quarter of last year released by the NBS
showed that Nigeria imported more goods in value terms than the country
exported, a development that led to a trade deficit.
Throughout
2016, Nigeria exported goods worth ₦8.53 trillion as against goods worth ₦8.82
trillion the country imported, resulting to a 6.47%trade deficit.
Analysis
showed that the ₦17.43 trillion trade value recorded last year was higher than
the ₦16.29 trillion in the past, a year that the country did not record trade
deficit because it exported more than it imported.
Daily
Trust gathered that the problem lies in Nigeria’s taste for imported exotic
goods and the country’s lack of capacity to manufacture needed goods or even
add value to raw materials before export. This is evident in the statistics of
vehicles imported into Nigeria in 2016 that beat expectations of reduction in
the market size of the auto industry in the country due to recession.
Speaking
at a forum with Commercial Attaches of Embassies in Nigeria recently, the
Director-General of the National Automotive Design and Development Council,
(NADDC), Engineer Aminu Jalal, said a total of 256, 000 vehicles were imported
into the country through the ports and their customs duty paid last year. This
excluded vehicles imported through the land borders.
The
recovery plan drawn by the government projects to reduce unemployment from 13.9%
as of the third quarter of 2016 to 11.23% by 2020, translating to an average of
3.7 million jobs per annum. It is expected that the plan will deliver stable
macroeconomic environment with the inflation rate dropping from the current
level of almost 19%to single digits by 2020.
The
plan sets out strategies for the exchange rate to stabilize as the monetary,
fiscal and trade policies are fully aligned, allowing the real GDP to grow by
4.6 per cent on average over the plan period, from an estimated contraction of
1.54 per cent recorded in 2016 to 2.19 per cent in 2017.
The
GDP is expected to hit 7 per cent at the end of the Plan period in 2020 as
crude oil and natural gas production recovers and expands in the oil-producing
areas. Crude oil output is forecast to rise from about 1.8 mbpd in 2016 to 2.2
mbpd in 2017 and 2.5 mbpd by 2020.
“Relentless
focus on electricity and gas will also drive growth and expansion in all other
sectors,” the report stated.
The
plan prioritizes the agricultural sector to boost growth by expanding crop
production and the fisheries, livestock and forestry sub-sectors as well as
developing the value chain.
The
plan said investment in agriculture will drive food security by achieving self-sufficiency
in tomato paste in 2017, rice in 2018 and wheat in 2020.
Also,
the plan aims to achieve 10 GW of operational capacity by 2020 and place
Nigeria as a net exporter of refined petroleum products by 2020 and prioritizes
infrastructure and industrialization with an average annual growth of 8.5% in
manufacturing, rising from -5.8%in 2016 to 10.6%by 2020.
Besides,
it stated that reduction in the importation of petroleum products resulting
from improvement in local refining capacity following the implementation of the
plan is expected to increase inflows of foreign exchange into the country.
To
achieve the projections, the federal government plans to increase non-oil
revenues by improving tax compliance, broadening the tax net, employing
appropriate technology and tightening the tax code as well as introduction of
tax on luxury items and other indirect taxes to capture a greater share of the
non-formal economy.
Furthermore,
the Federal Government will undertake major reforms in the budgeting for State
Owned Enterprises, which will include legislative amendments of the laws
establishing many of the SOEs.
The
plan sets to increase the VAT rate for luxury items from 5 to 15% from 2018,
while improving CIT and VAT compliance to raise ₦350 billion annually.
As
promising as the plan appears, experts at Preston Consults, a management
consulting firm, told the Daily Trust on Sunday that the projected outcome of
the growth and recovery plan may be too ambitious given the limited time of
four years.
The
experts were rattled that the inflation rate projection was twice that which
IMF put at 3.8%for the same period.
The
Head of the Economics Department, University of Abuja, Professor Sarah
Olanrewaju Anyanwu, called to question Nigeria’s political will and capacity to
implement the plan.
She
told reporters that three years would be sufficient to rescue the ailing
economy. According to her, Nigeria has never lacked good policies, programmes
and plans as the current one but implementation always stalled such plans.
On
the issue of will and capacity to implement the plan, the Budget Minister,
Senator Udoma Udo Udoma, said the federal government has the political will and
execution capacity to drive the implementation of the ERGP to achieve the
desired objectives.
A
statement from the Ministry indicated that the Minister said the 2017 Budget is
aligned with the ERGP. “Right from the beginning, it was clear that this is
where we are going; that we are going to have planning as an important focus
and then the budget rolls out of the plan,” the Minister was quoted in the
statement.
In
addition to the alignment of budget and planning which sets the tone for
effective realization of set objectives, the Minister said, government has set
up task forces to drive programmes and projects in very critical sectors of the
economy.
As
part of the implementation plan, Ministries, Departments and Agencies, (MDAs),
are required to meet clear goals for project execution while the task forces
have the responsibility to monitor and ensure compliance.
However,
the President of the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Tony Ejinkeonye,
also corroborated Professor Anyanwu on the need for the Federal Government to
focus on implementation. “The plan is workable. But there has to be the
political will to implement it,” he said.
Ejinkeonye
said the parameters set for the economy to recover and attain single digit
inflation and 7% GDP growth rate are achievable.
He
said the private sector, which he represents, was part of the process of the
plan and government had shown sufficient passion for its implementation. “If it
is implemented judiciously, there is every hope that we will get out of this
recession,” the industrialist assured.
However,
he raised a caveat that if Ministries, Departments and Agencies, (MDAs), which
should drive the policy, work at cross purposes, the plan will stall and the
purpose would not be achieved.
He
said the recent directive by the Nigeria Customs Service for vehicle owners to
obtain customs duty for their vehicles negates the economic recovery plan as
the plan hopes to increase not just foreign direct investment but local direct
investment as well.
He said such directive was capable of raising fears in Nigerians as it relates to policy inconsistency, calling on government agencies to consult properly before rolling out policies.
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