It was always on the
cards that whichever side prevailed in the March 28 presidential election would
benefit from the inevitable bandwagon effect. But not even the most cynical
observer of Nigerian politics could have predicted the exodus from the ranks of
the PDP in virtually all zones of the country.
The impact of General
Muhammadu Buhari, candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and now
President-Elect is bound to be telling in states where the result of the
presidential contest was close. Although he’s not on the ballot in the
gubernatorial races playing out across the country this weekend, his influence
looms large over the whole affair.
Expectedly, APC and its
candidates would benefit from association with his name in the North West,
North East and North Central. In the South West and South South, many are
increasingly considering whether they want to belong to the opposition in the
new dispensation.
In the 19 Northern states
the APC – still basking from its landslide victory across the zone two weeks
ago – will slug it out with an embattled Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) which
is struggling to rally its dispirited troops. Other parties in contention in
some states are the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Peoples Democratic
Movement (PDM).
Whether North or South
the following factors are likely to determine how the contests turn out: strong
party affiliation; slew of defections; the bandwagon effect of the victory of
Buhari; ethno-religious configuration; the personality of the candidates;
zoning / power shift syndrome and probable voters’ apathy.
SOUTHWEST
With the presidential
election settled, the gubernatorial contests in three South West states would
be determined by totally local issues and personalities. However the Buhari
factor could come into play as the people of the region as excited at the
prospect of being in the same boat as the party that controls the center. This
could have a bearing on Saturday’s polls. Governorship elections would hold in
only Lagos, Ogun and Oyo States. In Ondo, Ekiti and Osun only state assembly
polls will hold.
LAGOS
Before the March 28
polls, most analysts would have listed Lagos as one of the safest states for
the APC. Aware of the opposition’s strength in the state and the strategic
importance of its more than five million registered voters, President Goodluck
Jonathan made tremendous efforts at swaying the electorate in Lagos in favour
of his party.
The assault on the
opposition stronghold involved the deployment of huge sums in foreign currency
as well as overtly pitting non-indigenes against their hosts. These efforts
clearly had an impact given that by the time the dust settled, only 160, 133
votes separated Buhari and Jonathan.
The result was a surprise
as in 2011 Governor Babatunde Fashola who was the candidate of the then Action
Congress of Nigeria (ACN) trounced his PDP opponent by 1,509,113 to 300, 450
votes.
While many have blamed
the March 28 figures on everything from complacency, to voter apathy and even
Jonathan’s last minute efforts to capture the state using financial inducement
and appeals to ethnicity, the outcome clearly jolted APC into action.
One of the surprises of
the polls was the fact that PDP won in some erstwhile APC strongholds like
Oshodi-Isolo, Ajeromi Ifelodun, Amuwo-Odofin and Surulere. Clearly, the PDP’s
strategy of targeting Igbos and South South indigenes resonated very well as
their zones backed Jonathan’s re-election bid wholeheartedly.
In other to neutralize
that factor, the APC campaign machinery has gone into overdrive trying to woo
Igbo voters. But all their efforts were thrown out of joint following an
encounter between the Oba of Lagos, Rilwan Akiolu and the leaders of some Igbo
groups at the weekend. The angry traditional ruler was recorded virtually
threatening them with dire consequences if they didn’t vote for Akinwunmi
Ambode, the APC gubernatorial candidate.
Key leaders like the
President-elect Muhammadu Buhari, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, Fashola and Ambode have
tried to douse the ensuing firestorm of controversy by pointing out that
the APC will not discriminate in Lagos.
Predictably, the PDP
still reeling from Jonathan’s loss has sought to capitalize on the row to
enhance the chances of its candidate, Jimi Agbaje. But it remains to be seen
how the episode would help him.
Indeed, analysts are of
the view that the March 28 result shook APC out of its complacency and it is
now pulling out all stops to rally its base. That isn’t good news for its
opponents.
Some have also pointed
out that by trying to set the Igbos against indigenes, PDP had not played smart
politics because the move was a double-edged sword that could turn locals
against it.
There is also the fact
than the non-indigene card is more complex that it looks on the surface. Lagos
is a melting pot for people from different parts of the country. Just as a
substantial number of Igbos live in the city, there are also a great number of
settlers from the North who equally have their political preferences.
One observer pointed out
that beyond the social media noise and the blazing newspaper headlines, the
Igbos are very pragmatic in their political behavior outside their home
territory. In the end they would decide which side best favours their business
and other interests – leaving the possibility of the PDP and APC sharing their
votes.
Saturday’s election is
also being heavily affected by the argument that for the first time in 16 years
Lagos would be in the same political camp as the government at the center. This
factor is a powerful incentive that could tip the contest in APC’s favour.
Before Jonathan’s loss this was a pitch state PDP leaders loved to toss around.
Now the other side has stolen their thunder.
Also, months after his
controversial victory at the primary election, Jimi Agbaje is still battling
serious issues within his party. And with these critical matters still
unresolved, pundits say his aspiration to rule Lagos may remain a mere wishful
thinking.
Issues like reconciling
several factions of the party and how to convince Lagosians that he is not a
stooge of some discredited politicians in the PDP.
APC’s control of
political structures in Lagos is massive – from state to local council levels.
This gives it an unparalleled ability to get out the votes on polling day This
week the huge civil service was being mobilized to back Ambode who until a few
years ago was one of their own.
Against this backdrop,
the APC candidate, is well placed to coast home with a comfortable victory
today.
But unlike in 2011, when
it was a clean sweep for the ruling party, the PDP could win some assembly
seats, especially in areas where it won seats into the House of
Representatives.
Verdict: APC to win.
OGUN
Before the March 28
presidential election, an array of PDP chieftains, including Buruji Kashamu,
former party boss, Joju Fadairo, Adewale Osinubi, Doyin Okupe, amongst others,
were working round the clock to deliver votes in the state to the PDP. They
were determined to beat APC to second place. They campaigned against the wide
acceptance of Governor Ibikunle Amosun. It was a huge task for Jonathan’s men
and at the end of the presidential polls, they learnt their lessons. PDP lost
the presidency and could only win a senate seat and two House seats.
Consequently, observers
say the support base of the party in Ogun State is daily being depleted ahead
of the governorship election, giving an impression that Gboyega Isiaka, the PDP
governorship candidate may soon be alone and fighting a lost battle.
While rumours are rife
that Buruji is already negotiating with the leadership of the APC for a soft
landing following Jonathan’s loss, Okupe and Fadairo are said to be less
concerned with what becomes of Gboyega’s aspiration as their interest in the
entire process had all along been hinged on the presidency.
More shockingly, Osinubi,
who is the candidate of the PDP for the House of Representatives for Ijebu
Central Federal Constituency, on Thursday defected to APC, and vowed to support
Amosun’s re-election.
This is just as the PDP
is worrying its head over the seeming ‘siddon
look’ attitude of people like former Governor Gbenga Daniel, former
Speaker Dimeji Bankole, Jubril Martins-Kuye and a host of other aggrieved
leaders amidst fears that they may work against its victory tomorrow.
Analysts are also of the
opinion that winning the 2015 governorship election in the state for PDP may be
a tall order. This is because majority of the people of the state across
political party lines believe Amosun has performed well in his first term.
Verdict: APC to win.
OYO
In Oyo state, the failure
of Jonathan’s party to make any appreciable impact at the March 28 election
confirmed earlier permutations that Governor Abiola Ajimobi would win another
term in Government House. With the poor performance of the PDP and Rasheed
Ladoja’s Accord Party, the Adebayo Alao-Akala-led Labour Party (LP), is left to
challenge the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Saturday’s election.
While the APC clinched
all senate seats and majority House of Representatives slots, the LP won two
House of Representatives seats. This signals the decline of both the PDP and
the Accord Party in the politics of the state. The development reinforced the
readiness of the APC to continue in office beyond 2015.
Incumbent governor,
Senator Ajimobi, who is seeking a second term in office, is up against
old familiar foes in the battle for the political soul of the Pacesetter State.
Lined up against him are
his predecessor, Adebayo Alao-Akala of the Labour Party (LP); another former
governor, Rashidi Ladoja representing Accord Party (AP); former Senate Leader,
Teslim Folarin, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) a youthful
politician and wealthy businessman, Seyi Makinde, the flag bearer of the
relatively new Social Democratic Party (SDP).
The non-stop defection of
party leaders from the PDP which started with the exit of former Governor
Adebayo Alao-Akala, continued after Jonathan’s loss – dealing a massive
psychological blow to the party.
A few days ago a member
of the House of Representatives, two former members on the platform of Accord
and PDP), a governorship aspirant, one women leader, former local government
chairmen and thousands of their supporters joined APC. The defectors are Hon. Afeez
Jimoh, Folake Olunloyo-Osinowo, Tayo Sarumi, Dr. Azeez Adeduntan, Mrs Ayoka
Lawani and former Chairman, Iseyin Local Government, Mr Waheed Adeleke, among
others.
With APC determined to
hold on to the state, enjoying the support of all the first class monarchs
including Alaafin of Oyo, Soun of Ogbomosho, Olubadan of Ibadan etc, as well as
its recent victories across the state in the National Assembly elections,
Ajimobi may have little or no problem pushing over Akala on his way back to
Government House.
Interestingly, the four
leading candidates – Ajimobi, Ladoja, Folarin and Makinde are from Ibadan, the
state capital. While Ajimobi hails from Ibadan South, Ladoja comes from Ibadan
North, with Folarin and Makinde both from Ona Ara. Akala is an indigene of
Ogbomoso.
Against this backdrop,
earlier permutations were that the votes from Ibadan will be shared among
Ajimobi, Ladoja, Folarin and Makinde, with none of the contenders having a
clear cut advantage. Not a few are also ruling Akala out in the scramble for
Ibadan votes. The former governor was optimistic of posting a good showing,
banking on the fact that his running mate, Sharafa Alli, a former Secretary to
the State Government (SSG), hails from Ibadan.
But the massive support
given to the APC on March 28 by the people of Ibadan, with the party clinching
all available positions, has rubbished such calculations. If last election
results are anything to go by, Ajimobi will mop up the votes in his native
Ibadan and enjoy support from all other parts of the state.
Verdict: APC wins.
SOUTH SOUTH
As projected by this
newspaper, President Jonathan won the March 28 polls comfortably in the South
South zone. He is not on the ballot as the states choose their governors
tomorrow. His loss could dampen the enthusiasm of his party men. The prospect
of life in opposition could also affect the way some states vote. But in the
final analysis local issues of power shift and balancing could prove decisive.
CROSS RIVER
Going by the results
posted by the PDP in the presidential race, its governorship candidate, Senator
Ben Ayade, should be awaiting mere coronation tomorrow.
Voters massively chose
PDP above other parties at the presidential election. It scored 414,863 to
APC’s 28,368. Such a wide margin makes any upset unlikely for the APC or any
other party. The incumbency factor is also in favour in Ayade. His party has
always won the state and has seemingly impenetrable structure in all the nooks
and crannies.
But politics is never as
simple as ABC. Things are not always what they seem. An innocuous incident can
upturn everything in politics, turning a dominant party into the opposition in
no time. While Ayade remains the clear favourite to grab the votes owing by the
victory of his party in all local governments of the state at the presidential
poll, the emergence of Buhari as President-elect could sway votes in the
direction of APC.
Its governorship
candidate, Odey Ochicha, is no push-over. The former employee of the
National Petroleum Investment Management Services (NPIMS) has deep pockets and
wide network. He is considered approachable and accessible but critics say he
lacks political experience and has never won any election.
There is talk that voters
could look his way so as not to be in the opposition with APC in power at
federal level but that remains to be seen. Except the unthinkable happens,
Ayade might be on his way to winning the election.
Verdict: PDP to win
AKWA IBOM
As far as many members of
the APC in Akwa-Ibom are concerned, the 953,304 votes scored by President
Jonathan in the state were just concocted. They claimed there were no elections
in Akwa-Ibom. Some who accepted elections held alleged the exercise was marred
by irregularities and manipulations.
The APC has accused the
police and state INEC of colluding with Governor Godswill Akpabio to rig the
presidential election in favour of the PDP.
The 58,411 votes for
Buhari, they said, were just allocated to the president-elect. Realistically
speaking, no one expected Buhari to win Akwa-Ibom going by the traditional
voting pattern and mood of the state. But the massive margin enjoyed by
Jonathan convinced people there was more to the poll than meets the eyes.
Tomorrow, APC’s
governorship candidate, Umana Umana, will be out to prove the large margin in
Akwa Ibom by PDP was a fluke. He is from Uyo district with the largest voting
population in the state. He is also popular in the Oron Nation comprising
five local government areas in Akwa Ibom South. As a former Secretary to the
State Government (SSG), he has a wide network that could be handy.
His candidature is
boosted by the support of former Governor Victor Attah and former Petroleum
Minister, Don Etiebet, to the APC. The duo has scores to settle with Governor
Akpabio and prove their relevance in local politics. With them, Umana is a
stronger candidate.
But he is up against
formidable forces in the PDP led by Akpabio who is bent on installing Udom
Emmanuel as his successor. Akpabio is a major financier of national PDP so
shouldn’t have challenges spending to enable his anointed candidate win.
The popular belief is
that the contest could go either way if the INEC and security agents play by
the rule. APC leaders insist that if the polls are free and fair, the
lopsided figures of March 28 will be overturned. The party’s candidate
would be hoping the population strength of his Oron people will tip the balance
in his favour tomorrow.
Verdict: Battleground
RIVERS
Saturday’s governorship
election promises to be an epic battle between Dakuku Peterside of APC and
PDP’s Nyesom Wike. It would be a battle of egos, money, the political future of
the dramatis personae and much more.
For state governor,
Rotimi Amaechi, who is rounding up his second term in office, this is one
election that would define his place in the political history of the
South-South state.
And for his opponents
nothing would be spared to reclaim the state from a man who, in the last two
years, has proved a real handful.
Riding high on the back
of his endorsement by the First Lady, Patience Jonathan, the PDP candidate is
telling everyone that he is a man to watch out for.
But of greater concern to
PDP leaders is the opposition to Wike’s candidacy from influential opinion
leaders in the state including former minister, Chief Alabo Graham Douglas and
Ijaw activist, Annkio Briggs to mention just a few.
Their grouse is connected
with the failure of the PDP to respect the unwritten zoning agreement dating
back to1998 regarding the governorship seat. It provides for rotation between
the Upland and the Riverine areas of the state.
Wike hails from Ikwerre
in the upland, the same ethnic nationality as the incumbent governor, whose
predecessor, Dr. Peter Odili, who governed from 1999 to 2007 was also from the
upland.
The agitation for power shifts
Peterside. From the Opobo kingdom, the youthful politician was elected to
represent Andoni/Opobo-Nkoro area in the House of Representatives in 2011.
Peterside’s emergence,
sources say, was a deft move by his political mentor, Amaechi to rally the support
of the riverine people behind the APC in the battle for the political soul of
the state.
With the riverine people
are expected to queue behind Peterside in the election, political observers are
of the opinion that the support by the Ikwerre and Ogoni nationalities for or
against the two major candidates would go a long way to determine who wins the
election.
In the last few days the
Ijaw National Council has come out to endorse Peterside as well as have the a
council of Rivers State Elders led by fomer Director-General of the State
Security Service (SSS), Albert Horsfall.
A few posers would
suffice here: can Amaechi convince his kinsmen to reject another Ikwerre (Wike)
in favour of Peterside? Would aggrieved PDP governorship aspirants and key
stakeholders like Graham Douglas, Dokubo, Briggs and others work against Wike
who is the anointed candidate of the Presidency?
In the Ogoni axis,
Peterside, sources say, is head and shoulders above Wike in the battle for
votes. His high rating is linked to the influence of the Senator representing
Rivers East, Magnus Abe, who despite losing his return bid on March 28, remains
a loyal member of APC.
With the victory of
President Jonathan on March 28 in the state still a subject of controversy,
Rivers APC is reportedly girding its loins in order to prevent a re-occurrence
in the governorship election.
Against this backdrop,
the party is not leaving anything to chance in its preparations for the coming
polls. The victory of the APC in the presidential election, sources say, has galvanized members of the party to deliver the governorship seat for the party
tomorrow.
This is, however, not the
case in the PDP camp. The defeat of Jonathan, sources say has greatly dampened
the initial enthusiasm in the party.
In the last one week, a
palpable gloom has gripped the rank and file of the party who fear that the
people of the state could pitch their tent with APC in the governorship
election in line with the political history of the state which usually prefers
to be in the country’s political mainstream.
The pattern of voting in
the governorship election, sources posit, would significantly reflect in the
state House of Assembly which would hold on the same day.
Like Akwa Ibom, if the
INEC and security agents are neutral, APC may win by a slight margin.
Verdict: APC to win
DELTA
Still riding high on the
crest of its victory in the presidential election, the Delta State chapter of
the PDP is confident of recording a similar feat in the governorship election.
Its candidate,
Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, who started his political career as a councilor, appears
to be the odds on favourite in the election in which his major opponent,
Olorogun O’tega Emerhor, cannot be considered as a push-over.
A few factors are working
in Okowa’s favour. First, is his deep understanding of the political
environment owing to his almost two decades in politics.
A former councilor,
ex-local government chairman, former commissioner and ex-Secretary to the State
Government (SSG) and currently a senator, Okowa also enjoys the support of many
political stakeholders in the state on account of the zoning formula, which
favours the Delta North where he hails from.
The intimidating
structures of the PDP due to its 16 years of dominating the political landscape
of the state since 1999 would also come in handy for Okowa, who currently
chairs the Senate Committee on Health.
For the APC
candidate, Olorogun Emerhor, an Urhobo, an ethnic group which unarguably
controls the largest population in Delta Central, all hope is not lost despite
the poor showing of his party at the presidential election.
The businessman
turned politician, sources say, is banking on the population of the Urhobos to
clinch the governorship seat.
But his aspiration is not
helped by APC’s lack of structures in the state coupled with his political
inexperience. Though many Deltans believe that Emerhor has what is required to
take the state to the next level if elected governor, the division within the
leadership of his ethnic group, many of whom are allegedly pro-PDP may work
against him at the polls.
Despite the heavy odds
stacked against the APC candidate, party members remain upbeat on Emerhor’s
chances. Their optimism, it was learnt, stems from the party’s victory in the
presidential polls and the likely bandwagon effect this would have on the
governorship elections.
Another candidate capable
of making any impact an on the polls is Chief Great Ogboru of the Labour Party.
An Urhobo, Ogboru gave the incumbent governor a run for his money in the 2007
and 2011, and this fact is not lost on political watchers of the state who
argue that the LP candidate has the heart of a lion and popularity to pull off
an upset tomorrow.
However, the heavy
depletion of his resources expended on prosecuting his 2003 and 2007
governorship campaigns may hamper his chances of realizing his age-long
ambition come tomorrow.
In the event that Okowa
and Emerhor wins the majority votes in their respective senatorial zones, the
battleground would be in the South senatorial zone where the incumbent
governor, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, an Itsekiri comes from.
Sources say when
the chips are down, the PDP candidate would win this zone barring any last
minute upset. In the Ijaw speaking area, Okowa appears the candidate to beat,
as influential opinion leaders in the area including Ijaw leader, Chief Edwin
Clark and ex-militant, Government Ekpemupolo popularly called Tompolo, are
backing him to the hilt.
In the worst case
scenario, the Itsekiri votes would likely be split among the two major candidates
thus putting Emerhor at a disadvantage. But interestingly, a few days ago noted
Itsekiri billionaire, an ally of Governor Uduaghan and PDP financier, Chief
Ayiri Emami, defected to APC. How this will affect the race is hard to tell.
And for the House
of Assembly election, the PDP may win majority of the seats leaving a handful
of others for the APC and LP.
Verdict: PDP to win
SOUTH EAST
In spite of historical
patterns the results of the March 28 presidential and National Assembly
elections in the South-East were controversial and intriguing. While informed
observers had correctly predicted President Jonathan’s victory in the zone,
only very few, if any, imagined the possibility of the ruling party also
claiming all the National Assembly seats from the zone.
This situation, coupled
with the victory of APC’s Buhari, at the presidential poll, has raised the
stakes in Saturday’s governorship and state house of assembly elections in the
zone. Before the current realities, PDP supporters in the South-East used to
joke that once you secure the party’s ticket at the primaries; you were already
on the way to the office you were contesting for. The permutations may have
changed largely following the victory of Buhari’s APC at the federal level and
the usual craze in the zone to be part of mainstream politics. Intriguingly, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, the
pan-Igbo socio-cultural organization, has directed voters in Imo and Abia
states to vote for APC in the governorship and House of Assembly elections. In
a statement issued after a meeting in Enugu, the Caretaker Committee of the
body, led by Chief Ralph Obioha, stated that voting for APC in the election had
become necessary in order to integrate Igbo into the party and the emerging
political equation. It remains to be seen what electoral value this eleventh
hour endorsement carries.
ABIA
In Abia State where
Governor Theodore Orji effectively controls the PDP party machinery, the party
is very hopeful of another landslide both in the governorship and State House
of Assembly elections.
Describing Orji’s control
of the party machinery in an interview with The Nation, Chief Udensi Ukoma, a
community leader in Abia North, said, “ Over the years, PDP has managed to
dictate the pace in Abia State politics because of Governor Orji’s style of
governance. Until recently, he succeeded in rendering opposition parties
redundant in Abia.”
That state of inertia
however changed tremendously during the preparations for this year’s
governorship primaries as most opposition political parties fielded what a
political commentator in Umuahia described as “equally strong governorship
candidates, whose dynamism brought life to the opposition parties once despised
in Umuahia Government House.
For example, the
emergence of Dr. Alex Otti, the immediate past Managing Director of Diamond
Bank, as the governorship candidate of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA)
rejuvenated the party in the state, making it one of the major contenders.
For the APC candidate,
Dr. Nyerere Anyim, who is from Agburuike Isiugwu in Obingwa LGA, the result of
the March 28 presidential election, in which APC candidate emerged the
President-elect, is a great boost to his quest to occupy the coveted seat at
Umuahia Government House. Many believe that this turn of events in the
country’s federal political equation will help to make APC in the state a major
contender.
Another factor that helps
the three parties and their candidates is zoning. They all come from the zone
widely favoured to produce the next governor of the state. While his critics
tried hard to dismiss Otti’s Ngwa heritage, it seems difficult to say he has no
connections with the Ngwa race.
So, these current
realities have thrown up the three political parties; the ruling PDP, which has
Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu as its governorship candidate, APGA and APC as the major
contenders in next week’s governorship election.
While Ikpeazu’s PDP,
boasting of the incumbency factor in the state and the fact that the party
cleared the presidential and National Assembly elections in the state, is
confident to emerge the winner, Nyerere and Otti’s supporters believe the
emergence of Buhari, as the president-elect, has neutralized the political
temperature in the state, creating a more level playing field. As a result, the
two candidates are equally hopeful.
It would be interesting
also watching what impact the defection of former Abia State Governor Uzor Orji
Kalu’s biological and political family to APC has on Saturday’s contest.
Verdict: PDP to win
EBONYI
Although Ebonyi is a
traditional PDP state, we predicted that it would be a battleground in this
year’s presidential election mainly because of the ripple effects of the crisis
in PDP, which culminated in the political coup that dislodged control of the
party from Governor Martin Elechi.
As it stands,
supporters of the embattled governor, who moved over to Labour Party from where
they have arguably taken the shine off the PDP at governorship campaigns, are
major contenders to the Ebonyi governorship race. The party’s governorship
candidate, Chief Edward Nkwegu, enjoys Elechi’s support and this is widely believed
to be an advantage. He equally has the support of former Minister of Health,
Prof. Onyebuchi Chukwu, who lost the PDP ticket to the Deputy Governor, Dave
Umahi, in very controversial circumstances.
Umahi, who is the
governorship candidate of the ruling PDP has, since his dramatic emergence,
fought a brave battle with supporters of Elechi. While his supporters say he
has done enough to be reckoned with as a major contender, others believe he and
his party, PDP, will be major casualties of the result of the presidential
election and the emergence of APC’s Buhari as the president-elect. This is
because Umahi’s strength had been traced to his long connection to Abuja and
Aso-Rock. But with the imminent change of baton, it is doubtful if the Deputy
Governor and the state PDP will still get the kind of backing many anticipated
they would receive in order to win the governorship race.
Some say even if his
patrons like Senator Anyim Pius Anyim and Jonathan who had enthroned federal
lawmakers in the state still throw their weight behind him, ordinary voters may
want to take into cognizance of the reality that APC will now be in charge at
the centre.
Already, there are
stories that the supporters of Elechi in Labour may find an alliance with APC
very attractive. If this happens, they may easily win the governorship
election, if not, it will be a three horse race.
All these will
however depend on how APC succeeds in handling the crisis that trailed the
selection of its governorship candidate. It would be recalled that in late
February, some aggrieved stakeholders of the party in Ebonyi threatened to
leave if Senator Julius Ucha remained the governorship flag-bearer. They
reportedly said if they remained in the party, they would work against Ucha.
Verdict: PDP to win.
ENUGU
Since the dramatic
reconciliation of the Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu-led faction of
PDP in Enugu State and that of Governor Sullivan Chime, the party’s
governorship candidate, Hon. Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, has remained the top contender in
Saturday’s gubernatorial election.
But the dynamic campaign
of the Okey Ezea-led APC in the state, is posing a threat to Ugwuanyi’s
predicted victory because of the emergence of Buhari as President-Elect. The
Nation gathered that many grassroots political leaders in the state, who never
gave a second thought to APC are now willing to work for the party. This will
serve as a major boost for the party. Dr. Kingsley Udeh in Enugu said “even if
APC failed to win the governorship race in the state, it will get some state
House of Assembly seats and that will be a good beginning.”
Again, although the
Chime/Ekweremadu rift has been resolved, insiders say many people were hurt in
the process and such people may work against PDP.
Also, with Enugu
State’s Catholic dominated population, there is the fear in PDP that Father
Ejike Mbaka’s well publicized sermon may still sway precious votes to APC. This
notwithstanding, Ugwuanyi, who enjoys Chime’s full support, remains the clear
frontrunner in the race.
Verdict: PDP to win
IMO
The presidential and
National Assembly election results notwithstanding, Imo State is an APC state,
with Governor Rochas Okorocha flying the flag of his party for the governorship
race.
Before his dramatic
emergence, first on the ticket of All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) before
the formation of APC, the state had remained a traditional PDP state.
That explained the
large number of experienced politicians that are still in the PDP and the stiff
political challenge Okorocha’s APC still faces in the state. The way the
governor and others criticised the results of the presidential and National
Assembly election, underscores clear the competition in the state. In the
result announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), PDP
besides winning the presidential race cleared the National Assembly seats.
To Okorocha, the polls
were rigged. The state however gave Buhari over 25 per cent of the votes.
With the emergence
of APC’s Buhari as the President-elect, observers say the state elections in
Imo will be different. According Ikechukwu Anyanwu, “We know we have long
association with PDP and there are many influential politicians in the party,
there is no doubt that APC, the ruling party, will do better in next week’s
elections.”
The governorship is
a three-horse race between the APC, fielding Governor Rochas Okorocha; PDP,
fielding Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Emeka Ihedioha
and APGA, fielding Captain Emmanuel Iheanacho. While the three parties enjoy sizeable
followership in the state, the incumbent governor is likely to win the race.
Few days ago, notable PDP member Ifeanyi Araurume directed his supporters to
vote for Okorocha.The party will also get majority in the House of Assembly but
both PDP and APGA will also get seats in the Assembly.
Verdict: APC to win
NORTH-EAST
The critical factor in
the North-East is the insurgency and how the Jonathan administration has
handled it. That clearly weighed heavily in the minds of voters as they
punished the president and his party at the polls last weekend. That pattern is
expected to be repeated this Saturday. However, massive defections to APC,
ethnic and religious factors could also affect outcomes in Adamawa and Taraba.
ADAMAWA
The race in Adamwa has
been turned on its head by a massive wave of defections this week from the
ranks of the PDP. A former Deputy Senate Majority Leader, Jonathan Zwingina, a
former Minister of External Affairs, Idi Hong, and two serving senators crossed
to APC. Others who abandoned the ruling party are Senators Bello Tukur and
Ahmed Barata, as well as Sadiq Haske, a chieftain of the party.
The gubernatorial contest
was initially billed as a tough fight among four strong candidates in the
state. They are the APC’s Senator Jibrilla Bindow; the SDP candidate, Marcus
Gundiri, who narrowly lost to ex-Governor Murtala Nyako in 2011; the PDP
candidate, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu (a former chairman of the Economic and Financial
Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the candidate of the PDM, Dr. Ahmed Mohammed
Modibbo.
With the backing of the
Christian community, especially in Adamawa North, Gundiri is set to give APC
candidate, Bindow a good fight. The APC in the state is also projecting a
united front with ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar now backing Bindow.
On March 28 APC secured
374, 701 votes during the presidential election against PDP’s 251, 664. But
with the ruling party experiencing a massive uprising within its ranks against
Ribadu candidacy, the margin of its defeat could be wider tomorrow as momentum
is clearly on the side of APC.
Verdict: APC to win
TARABA
The Taraba gubernatorial
contest is one to watch. The state may be about to make history by electing the
first female governor in Nigeria. APC’s Senator Aisha Jummai Alhassan, a
stupendously wealthy lawyer is presently locked in a race with ex-Minister of
Niger Delta Affairs, Darius Dickson Ishaku of the PDP which could go either
way.
The outcome of the
presidential election suggests a tight governorship poll on Saturday because
while PDP scored
310, 800 votes, APC was
able to get 261, 326. This trend left a difference of only 49, 474 votes
between the parties.
Of greater significance
tomorrow would be how the three senatorial districts vote. Historically, the
North and Central districts (Muri Emirate) tend to band together, while Taraba
South which is made up of parts of the state that came from old Gongola and
Benue-Plateau tends to go in a different direction. Alhassan is from Taraba
North while Ishaku is from Taraba South.
The challenge for PDP is
the division amongst its members in the South senatorial district. Some who
allege that Ishaku was imposed as the party’s candidate would have preferred
David Sabo-Kente – a former accountant at the National Assembly, Abuja.
Sabo-Kente is reputed to
a grassroots mobiliser while his critics see Ishaku as more of a Kaduna man.
Rather than lying low after losing the PDP ticket, he went on to pick the
gubernatorial ticket of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and has vowed to stay
in the race. The upshot is that these two rivals would split the votes in their
stronghold – leaving Alhassan to sweep the Muri Emirate clean.
Although former Minister
of Defence, Gen. Theophilus Danjuma is influential in the state’s politics,
observers are of the view that this pull is limited to the South senatorial
district.
Another factor that is
coming into play is the Buhari bandwagon effect. Already there are claims that
following the loss of Jonathan, many local PDP leaders who no longer feel
beholden to the lame-duck president are double-dealing behind the scenes by
working for Alhassan.
Some have said the APC
candidate’s gender could work against her. But the counter argument is that
Muri Emirate solidarity is a stronger factor that would neutralize any misgivings
about electing a woman as governor. Further stoking the rivalry are the claims
that Taraba South controls the civil service and should not be handed the
governorship as well. All of this sets up the race nicely for Alhassan – former
wife of one-time Vice Chancellor of Ahmadu Bello University (ABU), Prof. Ango
Abdullahi.
Verdict: Too close to
call
BAUCHI
The earning of a paltry
86, 085 votes by the PDP in Bauchi State during the presidential election
compared to APC’s 931, 598 votes has left other parties with a little hope in
the governorship poll. Unless a miracle happens, the battle is over because the
bandwagon effect of the poll success of the President-elect would be to the
advantage of the APC governorship candidate, Muhammed Abdullahi Abubakar. If it
is true that Governor Isa Yuguda installed both the APC and PDP candidates, it
must be a deft political move which may see him winning wherever the pendulum
swings.
The other nine candidates
include Danladi Musa (MPPP); Mukhtar
Haladu (AD); Bello
Ibrahim (APGA); Salisu Musa (UPN); Mato Musa (UPP); Bala Musa (PDC); Abdullahi
Adamu Usman (KOWA); Jatau Mohammad Auwal (PDP); and Musa Yakubu Wanka (ACPN).
Verdict: APC to win
comfortably
GOMBE
Despite placing Sen.
Danjuma Goje under house arrest, APC still won the presidential election
with 361, 245 to PDP’s 96, 873 votes. The tension in the state accounted
for the low turnout of voters. Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo of PDP is in dire
straits because of the formidable forces arrayed against him.
He has an acceptable
opponent in Mohammed Inuwa Yahaya of the APC, but the decisive factor would be
the Buhari phenomenon. Early in the week, 50 of his aides and notable PDP
chieftains defected to the APC. The rest of the field are Hassan Kidda (LP); Muhammed
Ibrahim (AD); Ahmed Modibo Wali (APGA); Abdulhamid Sadiq (UDP); Yusuf
Haruna (NNPP); Jafar Abubakar(ADC); Umar Ardo (PDC); Abubakar Hashidu (Accord);
Gidado Hashidu (ACPN) and Muhammad Yelwa Daudu (SDP).
Verdict: APC victory.
BORNO
The declaration of Gambo
Lawan as the PDP governorship candidate in Borno State by the Federal High
Court, Abuja has thrown the party into disarray. The decision saw a former
Governor of Borno State, Sen. Modu Ali Sheriff losing out in his bid to install
his godson as governor of the state. The development has forced many PDP
members to stand aloof and watch how Lawan will weather the storm.
Thus, Lawan is going into
the governorship election as a political orphan. With APC’s huge votes of 473,
543 in Borno State during the presidential election and PDP’s paltry 25,640
votes, the outcome of the governorship poll is predictable.
Verdict: APC victory
YOBE
The APC is already in
celebratory mood here following its overwhelming victory at the presidential
election where it earned 446, 265 votes and left PDP with 25, 526. Governor
Ibrahim Gaidam(APC) is leading other contestants like ex-Minister Adamu Maina
Waziri (who is becoming a veteran governorship candidate); Buka Abba Isa (AD);
Muhammad Musa Lawal (APGA); Alli Gunsama Jallaba (NCP). The fact that the APC
family had been united is strength for the party. On the other hand, the PDP
has been battling divisions within its ranks since it concluded its
governorship primaries.
Verdict: APC to win
NORTH WEST
The PDP controls the
state governments in Kebbi, Jigawa, Katsina and Kaduna. This notwithstanding,
the sentiments across the zone is largely pro-Buhari. Many candidates are
expected to ride to victory on the president-elect’s coattails.
KEBBI
Seventeen candidates want
to be governor in Kebbi State but the odds favour the APC’s Sen. Atiku Bagudu.
His closest rival is Gen. Sarkin Yaki Bello of the PDP. Although APC earned
567,883 votes to PDP’s 100,972 at the presidential poll, its leaders are
working round the clock to seal victory on April 11. One of the party’s leaders
said: “We are not taking things for granted at all; we want to make it a
finished business.”
The imposition of the PDP
candidate by outgoing Governor Saidu
Dakingari triggered the
defection of many party stalwarts to APC. They include ex-FCT Minister, Adamu
Aliero, Sen. Muhammadu
Magoro, Bala Na’Allah,
Suleiman Mohammed Argungu and the APC governorship candidate.
It was not surprising
that APC had a clean sweep last Saturday. Barring last minute game-changer, the
internal wrangling in PDP has laid the foundation for APC’s victory.
Verdict: APC to win
KATSINA
This is the home state of
Buhari. His image looms large over it and the bandwagon might dictate the
outcome of the governorship election. The gubernatorial candidate of PDP, Musa
Nashuni needs to do something extraordinary to match the hurricane
support of the APC candidate, ex-Speaker Aminu Masari.
Verdict: APC to win
comfortably.
KANO
This is safe political
terrain for APC where it polled a massive 1,903,999 votes against PDP’s 215,
779 last Saturday. The landslide victory of has sent jitters down the spine of
PDP members who appear resigned to fate. The contest would be mainly between
APC’s Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and Salihu Muhammad Sagir of the PDP.
Verdict: APC to win
comfortably
KADUNA
Having lost the
presidency last Saturday, the only hope left for Vice President Namadi Sambo is
to win the governorship slot for PDP in Kaduna State. His political godson and
incumbent governor, Mukhtar Ramalan Yero faces a Herculean electoral contest
against the candidate of the APC, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, the former Minister of
FCT.
For APC to have garnered
1,127,760 votes at the presidential poll against PDP’s 484,085, Sambo does not
need a soothsayer to tell him that his party’s prospects for this weekend are
bleak.
Although APC is working
against complacency, other strong things in its favour are the Buhari factor;
the poor performance of Yero and the desire for change; the choice of Barnabas
Bala Bantex, who is loved in Southern Kaduna, as deputy governorship candidate;
and the defection of many stalwarts of PDP to APC.
Verdict: APC to win.
ZAMFARA
This is an APC
stronghold. In the presidential election, the party floored PDP with 612, 202
to 144, 833 votes. Nothing substantial may change during the governorship poll
because the masses are still behind ex-Governor Sani Yerima and his political
godson, Abdulaziz Yari. Since 1999, PDP has not won the governorship election
in Zamfara State. There are 19 other candidates trying their luck against Yari
– among them ex-Governor Mahmud Aliyu Shinkafi of PDP.
Verdict: APC victory.
JIGAWA
During his visit to the
Presidential Villa on Friday, Governor Sule Lamido was quick to acknowledge
that the PDP was rejected at the polls on March 28 by Nigerians. He was also
forthright in setting the template for the governorship election when he said:
“There is a tendency for bandwagon effect but it is up to us to work very
hard.”
The battle in Jigawa is
between the APC candidate, Mohammed Badaru Abubakar and PDP’s Mallam Aminu
Ibrahim Ringim.
Others are Sardauna Yaro
(APGA) and Murtala Musa Galamawa (NCP). The race is a litmus test for the
political survival of Lamido who has developed Jigawa in an unprecedented
manner in the last eight years.
But the governor’s
position was further undermined this week by the defection of his deputy as
well as former Governor Saminu Turaki and others. Added to this, the Buhari
bandwagon effect might just prove too much for him.
Verdict: APC to win
SOKOTO
The governorship contest
is also a family affair in Sokoto where the leading candidate, Speaker Aminu
Waziri Tambuwal (APC) is pitched against his political mentor, Sen. Abdalla
Wali of the PDP. When Wali was elected a Senator in 1999, it was his lot to
search for a competent legislative aide and he found one in the young Tambuwal.
The rest is now history. Having been inspired by his time working in the
Senate, he took a plunge into politics and rose to the peak as the Speaker of
the House of Representatives.
The APC, ably coordinated
by Governor Aliyu Wammako, remains the party to beat in Sokoto. The party’s
vote haul of 671, 926 at the poll on March 28 was a signal that the PDP might
not go far at the governorship level. Its lingering internal squabbles
occasioned by the shortchanging of Deputy Governor Mukhtar Shagari may make the
defeat of the outgoing ruling party a fait accompli.
Verdict: APC to win
comfortably
NORTH CENTRAL
With the exception of
Kwara and Nasarawa, PDP controls the state governments in the zones four other
states – Niger, Benue, Plateau and Kogi. What used to be a PDP stronghold has
been devastated by Hurricane Buhari. However, the results this weekend may
still be determined by a complex mix of ethnic and religious politics that is
never far from the surface in this zone.
BENUE
Watching Governor Gabriel
Suswam of Benue State on the television on last Friday revealed the amount of
pressure he’s been under since he was humbled by Senator Barnabas Gemade at
last Saturday’s senatorial contest.
With the PDP losing two
out of the three senatorial seats in the state, the governorship election could
be slipping from its grasp. At the time of writing this report, the momentum
was clearly on the side of APC with several PDP heavyweights like former
Minister of Justice and Attorney-General, Michael Aondoakaa and others defecting
to APC. The loss of these big names could prove psychologically devastating for
the demoralized PDP.
The top candidates are
ex-Minister Samuel Ortom (APC) backed by Sen. George Akume, former PDP national
chairman, Sen.Barnabas Gemade; ex-Minister Audu Ogbeh among others. Suswam’s
anointed candidate is Prince Terhemen Tarzor.
Verdict: APC to win.
PLATEAU
For the first time since
1999, the fortunes of PDP in Plateau State dipped last Saturday pointing to the
significance of the crack in its fold. At the presidential ballot, the party
secured 549, 615 votes to defeat APC which garnered 429, 140 votes. The demand
for power shift and other issues like the imposition of PDP candidate, Sen.
Gyang Pwajok might make the governorship poll tougher. The people of Southern
and Central Plateau have rejected the imposition Pwajok from Plateau North on
them after the eight-year tenure of Governor David Jang.
Out of the 17 local
governments in the state, Plateau North has six, South (six) and Central is
left with five. Motivated by the urge for power shift, the people of Southern
and Central Plateau have opted for APC leaving only Plateau North in PDP. The
APC governorship candidate, Hon. Simon Lalong is from Southern Plateau and his
deputy is the immediate past
Vice Chancellor of the
University of Jos, Prof. Sonny Tyodem from Plateau Central. On its part, the
PDP picked its candidate from Plateau North and deputy, U.G. Gomwalk from Kanke
in Plateau Central.
The outgoing Governor
Jang is locked in the fight of his life because a Pwajok loss will overshadow
his political legacy. But he will have to engage in that survival battle
without key leaders like former Governor Dariye and General Jeremiah Useni who
just defected to APC days after being elected senators on PDP’s platform.
The days preceding Saturday’s
polls have also witnessed the announcement of an alliance between APC, Labour
Party (LP) and Mega Party in the state. Jang who has dismissed the merger is
hoping to take advantage of the high population strength of Plateau North, the
church and Berom ethnic nationality to upstage the APC candidate.
Verdict: Battleground
KWARA
There are 16 governorship
candidates in Kwara. The crowd notwithstanding, the real contest is between
incumbent Governor Abdulfatai Ahmed (APC) and Sen. Simeon Sule Ajibola of PDP.
A coronation is likely in
the state going by the mood of voters at last Saturday’s presidential election
where they voted massively for APC with 302,146 votes compared to PDP’s 32,602.
The problems with PDP in
the state are wrong choice of candidate; restriction of the political influence
of its candidate, Ajibola to only Kwara South Senatorial District; the recourse
to religious and ethnic politics by Ajibola; abandonment by other PDP
governorship aspirants except Prof Shuaib Oba Abdulraheem (the DG of Ajibola
Campaign Organization) as well as the sudden loss of support from the centre
and PDP financier in the state, Hajiya Bola Shagaya.
On its part, APC has
gained more supporters with its ability to keep the state united; the strong
platform of the late Wazirin of Ilorin,
Dr. Abubakar Olusola
Saraki; the political support from Sen. Gbemisola Saraki; the religious factor;
and the bandwagon effect of Buhari’s victory.
Verdict: The state is
70-30 in favour of APC.
KOGI
There is no governorship
poll in Kogi State but the struggle for control of the State House of Assembly
will be between APC, PDP and Accord Party. Last Saturday, APC won all the three
Senatorial seats in the state across 21 local government areas. While Accord is
stronger in Yagba West, APC and PDP will slug it out in 20 others.
Verdict: APC to win
majority in the assembly
NASARAWA
The results of the
presidential election in Nasarawa State have shown that the governorship poll
is an even fight between the APC candidate, Governor Umar Tanko Al-Makura and
PDP’s Yusuf Mohammed Igabi. Last Saturday, PDP garnered 273, 460 while APC
secured 236,838 votes. But a huge number of votes that could have gone either
way were voided.
The indices which will
shape the race are ethnicity; religion; godfathers; coalition of forces and
performance in office.
The other candidates in
the governorship race are Hajiya A. Mbaka (LP); Labaran Maku (APGA); Tanko
Malami (PPA); Zakka Zaggi Rabo (ADC); Stanley John Mamud (Accord) and Haruna
Shuaibu Iliyasu (ID).
Findings reveal that if
there is an alliance between Maku, who is from the influential Eggon ethnic
group and another candidate, the governor may walk on tight rope. The selling
points of Al-Makura are his humility, sterling performance in office, ability
to resolve the incessant crises between the natives and Fulani herdsmen; and
earning the confidence of the peasant.
Verdict: Battleground
NIGER
The humiliating defeat of
Governor Babangida Aliyu in the Niger East Senatorial District election on
March 28 foretold what may happen in the governorship election in the state.
Apart from Babangida, most PDP leaders are yet to recover from what one of them
described as the “Buhari Tsunami.”
The battle in Niger State
is purely that of former Army generals and officers whose children are
contesting. The APC candidate, Abubakar Sani Bello is the son of a former Army
chief and a key stakeholder in MTN, Col. Sani Bello (retd). The PDP candidate,
Umar Mohammed Nasko is a scion of Gen. Gado Nasko’s family. Investigation also
confirmed that the APC candidate is married to the daughter of a former Head of
State, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar.
At last Saturday’s
election APC received 657, 678 votes to PDP’s 149, 222. The gap may prove too
big to bridge before this weekend’s contest.
Verdict: APC to win.
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