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A newly-arrived
displaced woman holds a child as they sit in the UN base in Bentiu, South
Sudan. South Sudan’s army has burned people alive, raped and shot girls, and
forced tens of thousands from their homes, according to interviews with
survivors by The Associated Press and corroborated by human rights groups (AP
Photo)
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As the world's youngest nation prepares to mark
its fourth year of independence from Sudan on Thursday, South Sudan finds
itself in the ignominious position of being "lower in terms of human
development than just about every other place on earth," according to a UN
report documenting the ravages of the war.
Analysts warn the only obvious diplomatic leverage
left to pressure the warring parties into making peace -- sanctions -- could
actually worsen the conflict.
The war began in December 2013 when President
Salva Kiir accused his former deputy Riek Machar of planning a coup, setting
off a cycle of retaliatory killings across the country that has split the
impoverished landlocked nation along ethnic lines.
AFP report continues:
Kiir and Machar have accepted "collective
responsibility for the crisis", but the 18-month-old war, in which tens of
thousands have been killed, rumbles on with no end in sight.
At least seven ceasefires have been agreed and
broken. When Kiir and Machar last met in late June they failed to even agree a
deal on paper, with the talks failing to "bear any tangible results",
a rebel spokesman said.
Last week, the UN Security Council imposed a
travel ban and asset freeze on six commanders -- three from the government side
and three rebels.
"Those who commit atrocities and undermine
peace will face consequences," the US Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power
said.
But three of those named had already been slapped
with European Union and United States sanctions that have failed to stem the
violence, as asset freezes and travel bans mean little to battlefield
commanders.
The International Crisis Group warned UN sanctions
on those directing the fighting -- the calls for sanctions have stopped short
of naming Kiir and Machar -- could "turn individuals and communities in
South Sudan who currently favour a peace agreement against the international
community".
But UN reports of a "new brutality and
intensity" of violence with a "scope and level of cruelty that...
suggests a depth of antipathy that exceeds political differences,"
indicates little, if any, appetite for peace.
Billions in
aid
John Prendergast, from the US-based Enough
Project campaign group, said sanctions could "combat the climate of
impunity" but said more were needed "on officials higher up the
flagpole of authority."
Billions of dollars in aid and development funds
have poured in since a 2005 peace deal with Khartoum that ended a decades-long
civil war and paved the way to an overwhelming vote for independence in 2011.
Yet international influence is now limited, even
for backers of South Sudan's independence such as Washington, or those with
powerful economic roles such as China, once the main buyer of South Sudan's now
largely stalled oil production.
Few see change coming from leaders on either side
despite the humanitarian crisis gripping South Sudan, where two-thirds of the
population of 12 million need aid including food, medical treatment and
military protection.
Former UN aid chief to South Sudan Toby Lanzer,
who was barred from the country last month after warning of an economic
meltdown, said the "political intransigence" of the country's leaders
is fuelling the conflict, echoing similar warnings from the African Union.
"The continuation of hostilities, in total
disregard of the suffering of the people, is tantamount to the abdication by
the South Sudanese leaders of their most fundamental responsibility," the
AU Peace and Security Council said.
An AU inquiry said Kiir and Machar were both
responsible for "organised massacres" and ethnic killings and
recommended they both be barred from political office. It was shelved over
fears its strong line would torpedo the floundering talks, but was later
leaked.
Meanwhile neighbouring countries are being
dragged into the war.
Over two dozen armed groups are involved in the
fighting, with thousands of Ugandan troops backed by helicopter gunships
supporting Kiir, while Sudan is accused of arming Machar's rebels.
Diplomats say they have few options left.
Repeated rounds of peace talks have resulted in little more than multi-million
dollar hotel and travel bills.
"Sanctions on leaders
are a last resort," said one diplomat close to the talks. "The hope
is still to get them to talk and strike a deal."
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